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Frankston CityPopulation forecast

Frankston City

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Frankston City indicate a 4.6% increase in population under working age, a 6.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 5.3% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Frankston City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Frankston City - Total persons202120262041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 48,8466.39,5696.59,8756.1+1,029
5 to 98,9496.48,9206.09,4795.9+530
10 to 148,6216.19,1356.29,4775.9+856
15 to 197,9315.68,7415.99,3535.8+1,422
20 to 247,9305.68,3525.69,2165.7+1,286
25 to 299,2306.69,7256.610,3746.4+1,144
30 to 3410,4417.411,1387.511,5937.2+1,152
35 to 3910,4347.411,2957.611,8077.3+1,373
40 to 449,4746.710,8037.311,6137.2+2,139
45 to 499,7236.99,7976.611,3897.0+1,666
50 to 549,3846.79,4816.410,5816.5+1,197
55 to 598,7986.28,8916.09,6095.9+811
60 to 648,1815.88,1305.58,3705.2+189
65 to 696,7044.87,2714.97,6224.7+918
70 to 746,0634.35,9214.06,8694.2+806
75 to 794,2933.05,0423.45,8453.6+1,552
80 to 842,8272.03,2192.24,5172.8+1,690
85 and over2,9802.12,8221.94,0722.5+1,092
Total persons140,809100.0148,252100.0161,660100.0+20,851
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), February 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Frankston City was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 7.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 40 to 44, which is expected to increase by 1,329 and account for 7.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 35 to 39 years, with a total of 11,295 persons.

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