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East Gippsland ShirePopulation forecast

East Gippsland Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for the East Gippsland Shire indicate a 5.3% increase in population under working age, a 30.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 1.8% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the East Gippsland Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
East Gippsland Shire - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42,4125.32,4925.02,9045.0+492
5 to 92,5655.62,6525.33,1025.3+537
10 to 142,4875.52,7195.43,1575.4+670
15 to 192,3445.22,3494.72,7064.6+361
20 to 241,9464.31,9103.82,2323.8+287
25 to 292,0234.42,0784.22,3854.1+362
30 to 342,0444.52,3884.82,6964.6+652
35 to 392,0384.52,4935.02,8444.9+806
40 to 442,3455.22,3414.72,8304.8+484
45 to 492,7025.92,3234.62,8684.9+166
50 to 543,0916.82,8215.63,1775.4+86
55 to 593,4507.63,4446.93,6736.3+223
60 to 643,6848.13,9717.94,1967.2+512
65 to 694,0779.04,2168.44,6698.0+592
70 to 743,2257.13,9848.04,6448.0+1,419
75 to 792,2334.93,5707.14,1587.1+1,926
80 to 841,4653.22,4614.93,4035.8+1,938
85 and over1,3412.91,8433.72,7584.7+1,417
Total persons45,473100.050,056100.058,402100.0+12,929
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), September 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in the East Gippsland Shire was ages 65 to 69, which accounted for 9.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 1,338 and account for 7.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 4,216 persons.

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