City of DarebinPopulation forecast
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Thornbury (East)

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Thornbury (East) indicate a 24.7% increase in population under working age, a 4.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 19.4% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Darebin is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Thornbury (East) - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 47416.58806.59056.1+164
5 to 96255.57695.78065.4+181
10 to 144814.26544.87254.9+244
15 to 194203.76624.97455.0+325
20 to 248197.19607.11,0677.2+248
25 to 291,15310.11,2529.31,3469.0+193
30 to 341,19210.41,35810.01,4149.5+222
35 to 391,0589.21,2569.31,2978.7+239
40 to 449408.21,0898.11,1447.7+204
45 to 497896.99096.79976.7+208
50 to 546175.47725.78745.9+257
55 to 594914.36444.87485.0+257
60 to 644053.55113.86344.3+229
65 to 694163.64113.05383.6+122
70 to 743312.93652.74883.3+157
75 to 794003.53852.84362.9+36
80 to 843242.83172.33832.6+59
85 and over2632.33282.43432.3+80
Total persons11,465100.013,523100.014,890100.0+3,425

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 343 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 383 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 436 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 488 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 538 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 634 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 748 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 874 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 997 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 1,144 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 1,297 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 1,414 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 1,346 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 1,067 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 745 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 725 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 806 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 905 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 328 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 317 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 385 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 365 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 411 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 511 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 644 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 772 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 909 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 1,089 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 1,256 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 1,358 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 1,252 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 960 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 662 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 654 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 769 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 880 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 263 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 324 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 400 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 331 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 416 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 405 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 491 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 617 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 789 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 940 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 1,058 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 1,192 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 1,153 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 819 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 420 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 481 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 625 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 741
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 15 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 66 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 51 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 123 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 127 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 123 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 104 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 102 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 88 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 55 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 41 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 55 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 94 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 108 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 83 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 71 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 37 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 25 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 65 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: -7 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: -15 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 34 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: -5 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 106 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 153 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 155 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 120 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 149 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 198 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 166 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 99 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 141 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 242 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 173 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 144 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 139
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Thornbury (East) was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 10.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 15 to 19, which is expected to increase by 242 and account for 4.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 1,358 persons.

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