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City of DarebinPopulation forecast

Northcote (West)

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Northcote (West) indicate a 49.7% increase in population under working age, a 54.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 24.7% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Darebin is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Northcote (West) - Total persons202120312041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 44654.59717.21,0477.0+582
5 to 94874.77495.58515.7+364
10 to 145625.55474.07244.8+162
15 to 194774.66184.67244.8+247
20 to 245355.21,0788.01,0787.2+543
25 to 291,13811.11,48211.01,53010.2+392
30 to 341,18511.51,3319.81,4679.8+282
35 to 398708.51,0497.81,1507.7+280
40 to 448238.09487.01,0096.7+186
45 to 497977.88496.39356.2+137
50 to 547707.57375.48185.5+48
55 to 595115.06915.17254.8+214
60 to 644494.46364.76234.2+174
65 to 693113.04223.15373.6+226
70 to 742912.83902.95193.5+228
75 to 791931.93542.64352.9+242
80 to 841941.93242.43852.6+191
85 and over2032.03492.64172.8+213
Total persons10,263100.013,525100.014,975100.0+4,712
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2022.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Northcote (West) was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 11.5% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 20 to 24, which is expected to increase by 543 and account for 8.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 25 to 29 years, with a total of 1,482 persons.

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