idc-logo
svg rectangle color
City of DarebinPopulation forecast

City of Darebin

Drivers of population change

Development history

The City of Darebin is an established municipality located in the northern suburbs of Melbourne. The municipality’s land uses are relatively diverse with large commercial and industrial bases and residential areas stretching from the mid nineteenth century in Northcote to recent residential developments in Bundoora and Macleod. The commercial areas of the municipality are concentrated along High Street in Northcote, Thornbury, Preston and Reservoir, Plenty Road in Preston and Reservoir, Station Street, Fairfield, the Northland shopping centre and Preston.

Urban development in the City dates back to the nineteenth century, with development initially around Northcote and the Preston township.; however, it was not until the twentieth century that significant urban expansion occurred, with growth centred on the southern parts of the City. By the post-war period, development was focused on areas such as Reservoir, Kingsbury as well the remaining areas of Preston.

Migration patterns

The primary housing market role that the City of Darebin played during this period was to provide home owning opportunities for families and prospective families from the inner northern suburbs of Melbourne and housing for recent overseas migrants. The 1970s and 1980s were a period of population loss in the City as a number of areas matured, with children leaving the family home, as well as comparatively little residential development to provide housing opportunities. During the 1990s the population stabilised as new development opportunities were taken, such as the development of the remaining greenfield land in Bundoora and Macleod, the increasing construction of units in Reservoir and the conversion of industrial sites and surplus government, utility land to residential purposes. There is significant pressure for residential expansion within the City of Darebin from both existing residents and from external migrants, most notably from overseas, as well as areas to the south (the Cities of Yarra, Melbourne & Port Phillip), although affordability issues have resulted in the loss of people to the outer north who seek affordable housing in new growth areas such as the City of Whittlesea, Hume City and to the west – City of Melton.

Darebin has been affected by the impact of COVID-19, especially in the those areas of the City with large numbers of tertiary students, particularly overseas students. In total, owing to the pandemic, Darebin has experienced a net loss of approximately 11,500 persons to overseas migration and 6,800 to internal migration. It is asumed that this is a short-term effect caused by Victoria’s lock-down and the closure of internationall borders, and that the migration patterns experienced prior to the pandemic will return now that those restrictions have been removed. This is particularly so with a net gain through overseas migration expected in the City, with a return to the large overseas flows experienced prior to the pandemic. This will also see a return to high levels of housing demand, fuelling in particular the development of higher density residential housing in the established areas of the City.

Historical migration flows, City of Darebin, 2016-2021






Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

*Please note, the 2021 Census was undertaken during the COVID-19 pandemic, at a time where border restrictions had largely halted overseas in-migration for the 15 months prior. 2016-2021 net overseas migration levels reflect this and therefore should not necessarily be considered indicative of longer-term trends.

Housing role and function

Given the diversity of the housing stock across the City and the large size of the municipality, areas have developed different roles within the housing market. These roles generally fall under three categories: 1. Young adults and tertiary students; 2. Established and mature families and; 3. Young to mature adults and families in conjunction with young adults and tertiary students. The first pattern affects most areas of the municipality, such as the Northcote, Fairfield, Thornbury and Preston and most of Reservoir due to the proximity to public transport and therefore connection to La Trobe and RMIT Universities to the north of the city, as well as tertiary institutions and private education providers in Melbourne. The second pattern is unique to Reservoir (Merrilands), where the housing stock, the amenity and attractiveness of the areas attract mature families. The third pattern is noteworthy in selected areas of the City such as Bundoora - Macleod and Alphington and reflects the continued availability of larger family homes as well as their proximity to public transport. This difference in function and role of the small areas in the City of Darebin means that population outcomes differ significantly across the municipality.

Housing supply

There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next five to twenty years. The major source of additional dwellings and households in the City will be in the larger redevelopment sites and through infill and medium density development in existing residential areas.

Already, a lot of corridor development has occurred along the High Street, St Georges Road and Plenty Road corridors in Northcote, Thornbury and Preston. These developments make use of existing availability and proximity of public transport services as well as overall amenity. In the short to medium term, some areas, such as the ‘Preston Junction’ triangle in Preston, and the Northland Urban Renewal Precinct (expected to commence redevelopment in the mid 2020s), will result in complete transformation from ageing industrial and large floor space commercial landuse to a mix of medium and high density residential, employment and commercial landuse.

Council and State policies and the analysis of zoning/covenant limitations have helped identify opportunities for significant numbers of new dwellings through infill and regeneration. High rates of residential redevelopment are expected in parts of Northcote, Thornbury, Preston and parts of Reservoir because of the opportunities for intensification and infill redevelopment these areas provide, owing to larger lot sizes, ageing dwelling stock and high levels of residential demand.

DISCLAIMER: While all due care has been taken to ensure that the content of this website is accurate and current, there may be errors or omissions in it and no legal responsibility is accepted for the information and opinions in this website.

Please view our Privacy Policy, Terms of use and Legal notices.

ABS Data and the copyright in the ABS Data remains the property of the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The copyright in the way .id has modified, transformed or reconfigured the ABS Data as published on this website remains the property of .id. ABS Data can be accessed from the Australian Bureau of Statistics at www.abs.gov.au. ABS data can be used under license - terms published on ABS website. intermediary.management@abs.gov.au if you have any queries or wish to distribute any ABS data.