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Shire of DardanupPopulation forecast

Shire of Dardanup

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for the Shire of Dardanup indicate a 22.7% increase in population under working age, a 63.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 17.0% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the Shire of Dardanup is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Shire of Dardanup - Total persons201620312041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,1307.91,3617.61,8837.8+753
5 to 91,0597.41,2957.21,8427.6+783
10 to 149756.81,2266.81,7107.1+735
15 to 199476.61,0415.81,4015.8+454
20 to 248525.99925.51,2925.4+440
25 to 291,0207.11,1446.41,5626.5+542
30 to 349696.71,2136.71,7287.2+759
35 to 399306.51,1946.61,7187.1+788
40 to 449026.31,1406.31,5926.6+690
45 to 499576.71,0415.81,4305.9+473
50 to 549376.59995.61,3095.4+372
55 to 598966.29765.41,2205.1+324
60 to 647555.29865.51,1794.9+424
65 to 696804.79205.11,0854.5+405
70 to 744513.18164.59654.0+514
75 to 794122.96583.78393.5+427
80 to 842711.95042.86692.8+398
85 and over2471.74742.66752.8+428
Total persons14,390100.017,980100.024,097100.0+9,707
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), October 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in the Shire of Dardanup was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 7.9% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 365 and account for 4.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 1,361 persons.

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