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Colac Otway ShirePopulation forecast

Colac Otway Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2036, the age structure forecasts for Colac Otway Shire indicate a 17.8% increase in population under working age, a 54.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 7.2% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Colac Otway Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Colac Otway Shire - Total persons201620362041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,2565.91,4765.81,5675.9+311
5 to 91,3176.21,5546.11,6506.2+333
10 to 141,2786.01,5065.91,5986.0+320
15 to 191,2185.71,3355.31,4125.3+194
20 to 241,1685.51,2444.91,3074.9+139
25 to 291,2045.61,3205.21,3875.2+183
30 to 341,1685.51,3875.51,4655.5+296
35 to 391,0745.01,4025.51,4855.5+410
40 to 441,2495.81,4145.61,4915.6+242
45 to 491,3896.51,4005.51,4845.5+94
50 to 541,4466.81,4275.61,5095.6+63
55 to 591,5607.31,4815.81,5946.0+34
60 to 641,5747.41,5796.21,6006.0+26
65 to 691,4346.71,5906.31,6146.0+180
70 to 741,0955.11,5396.11,5785.9+483
75 to 798033.81,4025.51,4525.4+649
80 to 845582.61,1564.61,2394.6+681
85 and over5692.71,1814.71,3255.0+756
Total persons21,361100.025,394100.026,756100.0+5,394
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), October 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Colac Otway Shire was ages 60 to 64, which accounted for 7.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2036 is forecast to be in ages 85 and over, which is expected to increase by 612 and account for 4.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2036 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 1,590 persons.

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