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Coffs Harbour City CouncilPopulation forecast

Coffs Harbour City Council

Births and deaths

In 2017, Northern Beaches is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 3.38 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 3.33 in 2036.

The number of births in Coffs Harbour City Council are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Coffs Harbour City CouncilYearChange between 2017 and 2036
Area20172036Number
Coffs Harbour City2.282.23-0.05
Boambee East1.901.87-0.02
Bonville - Bundagen - Boambee3.233.220
Coffs Harbour (Central North)2.021.99-0.03
Coffs Harbour (Central)2.032.030
Coffs Harbour (North East)2.662.59-0.07
Coffs Harbour (South East)1.581.60+0.02
Coffs Harbour (West)2.142.08-0.06
Korora - Sapphire Beach2.322.29-0.03
Moonee Beach2.572.52-0.05
North Boambee Valley2.562.72+0.15
Northern Beaches3.383.33-0.04
Rural West2.342.31-0.03
Sandy Beach - Emerald Beach1.891.84-0.06
Sawtell3.083.04-0.05
Toormina2.152.11-0.04
Woolgoolga2.232.21-0.03
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Coffs Harbour City Council is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Coffs Harbour City Council, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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