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Cessnock City CouncilPopulation forecast

Cessnock City Council

Drivers of population change

The City of Cessnock is located within the Hunter region of New South Wales, about 50km west of Newcastle and 120 km north of Sydney. The majority of the Cessnock Local Government Area is in Wonnarua Nation lands, with some of the city in Darkinjung and Awabakal lands.

The East of the LGA is characterized by a number of small towns set amongst farmland and vineyards, and much of the West is national park, with some very small settlements. While it is low-density regional area, it enjoys strong links to the greater economic region stretching from Newcastle through Central Coast to Sydney.

Development history

European settlement of this area dates to the 1820s with the first settlement of the land for agriculture. The Township of Cessnock was established in the 1850s as a service centre at the junction of the recently constructed Great North Road.

Coal was discovered in the 1890s, and the establishment of coal mines in the region led to strong population growth through the first half of the 20th century. In the second half of the 20th century, the coal industry declined in importance, while agriculture, viticulture, and tourism (also associated with the wine industry) became more important.

Housing and migration patterns

As the population and economy of Newcastle has grown, Cessnock has also attracted residents who commute to Newcastle, but are looking for a quieter environment and more affordable property. This has been facilitated by new suburban residential developments around the towns of Cessnock, Kurri Kurri, and Branxton, which have attracted young families. There has also been some scattered lower-density development in areas such as Nulkaba and Rothbury that has attracted older ‘empty-nester’ households looking for homes with a more rural feel but with good access to Newcastle and smaller centres.

The map below shows the largest net migration movements between Cessnock and other LGAs over the most recent inter-census period.

Historical migration flows, Cessnock City Council, 2016-2021






Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

*Please note, the 2021 Census was undertaken during the COVID-19 pandemic, at a time where border restrictions had largely halted overseas in-migration for the 15 months prior. 2016-2021 net overseas migration levels reflect this and therefore should not necessarily be considered indicative of longer-term trends.

Cessnock is forecast to see continuing positive net migration over the coming decades. Population is attracted from Newcastle, Sydney, and the surrounding areas. The households that are attracted to Cessnock are mostly young families, as well as some middle-aged, childless households. Cessnock has large areas of land zoned to accommodate residential development to support this growth

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