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Central Coast NSWPopulation forecast

Narara Valley District

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Narara Valley District indicate a 7.0% increase in population under working age, a 6.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 7.3% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Central Coast NSW is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

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Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Narara Valley District - Total persons202120262036Change between 2021 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,8756.12,3127.02,3766.9+501
5 to 92,0356.62,0506.22,2916.7+256
10 to 142,1857.12,1596.52,2676.6+82
15 to 191,9326.32,1146.42,0455.9+113
20 to 241,7475.61,9135.81,9385.6+191
25 to 291,8365.92,0766.32,0996.1+263
30 to 342,1036.82,3197.02,3386.8+234
35 to 392,0666.72,4347.42,4817.2+415
40 to 441,9746.42,3127.02,4697.2+495
45 to 491,9976.52,0726.32,3636.9+367
50 to 541,8966.11,9265.82,0956.1+199
55 to 591,9506.31,8015.41,8265.3-125
60 to 641,8105.91,7485.31,6254.7-185
65 to 691,5455.01,6184.91,4724.3-73
70 to 741,4814.81,3844.21,4214.1-61
75 to 791,0033.21,2403.71,2433.6+240
80 to 846602.17632.39202.7+260
85 and over8202.78432.51,1283.3+308
Total persons30,917100.033,083100.034,397100.0+3,480
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), February 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Narara Valley District was ages 10 to 14, which accounted for 7.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 0 to 4, which is expected to increase by 436 and account for 7.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 35 to 39 years, with a total of 2,434 persons.

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