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Central Coast NSWPopulation forecast

Central Coast NSW

Births and deaths

In 2017, Lake Munmorah - Chain Valley Bay is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.51 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.47 in 2036.

The number of births in Central Coast NSW are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Central Coast NSWYearChange between 2017 and 2036
Central Coast Council area2.172.13-0.04
Avoca Beach - Picketts Valley - Copacabana - MacMasters Beach2.082.080
Bateau Bay2.182.14-0.04
Berkeley Vale - Chittaway - Glenning Valley2.092.05-0.04
Blue Haven2.102.16+0.06
Budgewoi - Halekulani - Buff Point2.322.31-0.01
Charmhaven - Lake Haven2.422.37-0.04
East Gosford - Point Frederick2.072.03-0.04
Ettalong Beach - Booker Bay2.482.45-0.03
Forresters Beach - Wamberal2.132.120
Gosford - West Gosford1.741.73-0.02
Green Point1.651.67+0.01
Gwandalan - Summerland Point2.382.36-0.03
Hamlyn Terrace2.382.37-0.02
Holgate - Matcham - Erina Heights2.162.13-0.03
Kanwal - Wyongah2.072.05-0.02
Killarney Vale - Tumbi Umbi2.162.13-0.04
Kincumber South - Bensville - Empire Bay - Killcare2.202.19-0.01
Lake Munmorah - Chain Valley Bay2.512.47-0.04
Lisarow - Mt Elliot2.192.18-0.01
Long Jetty - Shelly Beach - Toowoon Bay - Blue Bay2.232.22-0.01
Mannering Park2.082.03-0.05
Narara - Niagara Park1.961.94-0.02
Noraville - Norah Head2.082.07-0.01
North Gosford - Wyoming2.292.27-0.01
Ourimbah - Palmdale - Kangy Angy1.901.86-0.04
Point Clare - Tascott - Koolewong - Woy Woy Bay2.412.40-0.01
San Remo - Doyalson - Colongra2.032.02-0.01
Terrigal - North Avoca2.032.020
The Entrance - The Entrance North2.052.07+0.02
Toukley - Canton Beach2.262.25-0.01
Tuggerah - Mardi2.372.35-0.03
Tuggerawong - Tacoma - Rocky Point2.062.060
Umina Beach - Pearl Beach - Patonga2.182.17-0.01
Warnervale - Wallarah - Bushells Ridge1.771.76-0.01
Woy Woy - Blackwall2.162.15-0.01
Yattalunga - Saratoga - Davistown2.292.29-0.01
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), March 2018.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Central Coast NSW is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Central Coast NSW, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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