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In 2017, Lake Munmorah - Chain Valley Bay is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.51 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.47 in 2036.
The number of births in the Central Coast NSW are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.
Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.
|Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)|
|Central Coast NSW||Year||Change between 2017 and 2036|
|Central Coast Council area||2.17||2.13||-0.04|
|Avoca Beach - Picketts Valley - Copacabana - MacMasters Beach||2.08||2.08||0|
|Berkeley Vale - Chittaway - Glenning Valley||2.09||2.05||-0.04|
|Budgewoi - Halekulani - Buff Point||2.32||2.31||-0.01|
|Charmhaven - Lake Haven||2.42||2.37||-0.04|
|East Gosford - Point Frederick||2.07||2.03||-0.04|
|Ettalong Beach - Booker Bay||2.48||2.45||-0.03|
|Forresters Beach - Wamberal||2.13||2.12||0|
|Gosford - West Gosford||1.74||1.73||-0.02|
|Gwandalan - Summerland Point||2.38||2.36||-0.03|
|Holgate - Matcham - Erina Heights||2.16||2.13||-0.03|
|Kanwal - Wyongah||2.07||2.05||-0.02|
|Killarney Vale - Tumbi Umbi||2.16||2.13||-0.04|
|Kincumber South - Bensville - Empire Bay - Killcare||2.20||2.19||-0.01|
|Lake Munmorah - Chain Valley Bay||2.51||2.47||-0.04|
|Lisarow - Mt Elliot||2.19||2.18||-0.01|
|Long Jetty - Shelly Beach - Toowoon Bay - Blue Bay||2.23||2.22||-0.01|
|Narara - Niagara Park||1.96||1.94||-0.02|
|Noraville - Norah Head||2.08||2.07||-0.01|
|North Gosford - Wyoming||2.29||2.27||-0.01|
|Ourimbah - Palmdale - Kangy Angy||1.90||1.86||-0.04|
|Point Clare - Tascott - Koolewong - Woy Woy Bay||2.41||2.40||-0.01|
|San Remo - Doyalson - Colongra||2.03||2.02||-0.01|
|Terrigal - North Avoca||2.03||2.02||0|
|The Entrance - The Entrance North||2.05||2.07||+0.02|
|Toukley - Canton Beach||2.26||2.25||-0.01|
|Tuggerah - Mardi||2.37||2.35||-0.03|
|Tuggerawong - Tacoma - Rocky Point||2.06||2.06||0|
|Umina Beach - Pearl Beach - Patonga||2.18||2.17||-0.01|
|Warnervale - Wallarah - Bushells Ridge||1.77||1.76||-0.01|
|Woy Woy - Blackwall||2.16||2.15||-0.01|
|Yattalunga - Saratoga - Davistown||2.29||2.29||-0.01|
The forecast number of deaths in the Central Coast NSW is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for the Central Coast NSW, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).
Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.
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