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City of CaseyPopulation forecast

Cranbourne

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2036, the age structure forecasts for Cranbourne indicate a 18.3% increase in population under working age, a 36.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 22.1% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Casey is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Cranbourne - Total persons202120362046Change between 2021 and 2046
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,5597.21,9487.32,0757.2+516
5 to 91,5307.11,7656.61,8736.5+343
10 to 141,3166.11,5005.61,6105.6+294
15 to 191,2545.81,5005.71,6495.7+395
20 to 241,6137.51,9417.32,0777.2+464
25 to 291,7608.22,2288.42,3758.2+615
30 to 341,8418.52,3068.72,4588.5+617
35 to 391,6607.72,1348.02,2707.8+610
40 to 441,4026.51,8707.01,9906.9+588
45 to 491,3416.21,6956.41,8246.3+483
50 to 541,3406.21,5395.81,7025.9+362
55 to 591,2335.71,3685.21,5515.4+318
60 to 641,1285.21,2084.51,3414.6+213
65 to 699014.21,0153.81,0873.8+186
70 to 747203.38313.19273.2+207
75 to 794542.17002.68172.8+363
80 to 842921.45282.06672.3+375
85 and over2361.14741.86742.3+438
Total persons21,580100.026,549100.028,968100.0+7,388
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2046, prepared by .id (informed decisions), October 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Cranbourne was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 8.5% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2036 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 474 and account for 8.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2036 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 2,306 persons.

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