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City of CaseyPopulation forecast

City of Casey

Drivers of population change

Historical migration flows, City of Casey, 2016-2021






Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

*Please note, the 2021 Census was undertaken during the COVID-19 pandemic, at a time where border restrictions had largely halted overseas in-migration for the 15 months prior. 2016-2021 net overseas migration levels reflect this and therefore should not necessarily be considered indicative of longer-term trends.

The City of Casey is a rapidly developing residential area located in the outer south eastern suburbs of Melbourne, with large areas of land still allocated for urban development and surrounding rural areas. The City of Casey encompasses a total land area of about 400 square kilometres. Rural land is used mainly for grazing, horse agistment, market gardening, flower growing and open space/parklands.

Significant residential development did not occur in the City of Casey until the post-war years, beginning in Doveton in the 1950s, and then expanding to cover much of the northern half of the City. In the 1960s, the Berwick corridor was identified as one of Melbourne’s growth corridors, with large areas around Cranbourne released for development in the 1980s. Since then the City of Casey has been one of Australia’s fastest growing areas, catering for a large proportion of Melbourne’s fringe development. The population nearly doubled within 15 years around the turn of the century, rising from about 113,000 in 1991 to about 223,000 in 2006. During that time most growth occurred in Narre Warren South, Berwick (South), Hampton Park and Cranbourne East. As open land was mostly exhausted in these areas, greenfield development shifted to the suburbs of Cranbourne West, Clyde North, and Clyde, as well as continuing densification around the activity centre in Cranbourne.

Most recent residential development in the City of Casey has been driven by precinct structure plans - notable ones including Clyde Creek, Cardinia Creek South, Clyde North, Thompsons Road, Minta Farm, and Botanic Ridge PSPs. As construction in these areas completes, it is expected that PSPs currently under development - Clyde South, Devon Meadows, and to a lesser extent Croskell - will present the next residential growth front.

Much of the continuing significant demand for new housing comes from young families and couples from within Casey, as well as neighbouring areas such as Greater Dandenong and Frankston. For many, the greenfield developments in the City of Casey provide the best shot at purchasing a first home, particularly for those with desires for low density residential living. Casey also sees a strong wave of overseas in-migration, bolstered by its proximity to the neighbouring City of Greater Dandenong which serves as a major ’port’ for overseas migrants. It is assumed that a number of these patterns will continue into the future, most notably flows into the City of Casey from the west, while the maturing of families within the City, notably in Berwick (North) – Beaconsfield, Berwick (South) and Narre Warren South can be expected to provide additional demand, as children leave home to form households of their own within the City. The more recently developed areas of the City, in contrast, will experience an increase in smaller households in the coming years as children leave home and families age. It is likely that, in the longer term, the ageing of the population will result in a loss of population within these suburbs.

With the progressive residential development of the City, the large size of the municipality and the broad range of land uses across the City, areas have developed different roles within the housing market. Areas such as Botanic Ridge, Clyde, Clyde North, Cranbourne East, and Cranbourne West have had significant residential development in more recent years and are attractive to couples and families seeking new housing opportunities. This is expected to change in the future as these suburbs develop a mature housing market, and prospective buyers will be required to seek properties further out in Melbourne’s suburbia. The more rural parts of the City, particularly around Casey Foothills and Casey Coast are attractive to mature families looking to upgrade to their second and third home and in most cases seeking a rural environment and lifestyle. Similarly, Endeavour Hills, a developed suburb, has larger lots that attract second and third home buyers. The older established areas of the City, such as Doveton, Eumemmerring, and Hallam tend to attract lower to middle income families and young adults in single or couple households owing to a broader range of housing options and tenure. Hampton Park (developed in the 1970/80s), Lynbrook, and Lyndhurst (both developed in the 2010s) offer home owning opportunities to lower and middle income families and first home buyers. Cranbourne offers a broader range of housing opportunities for younger adults and first home buyers. Previous patterns of migration are less relevant for the growth areas of Botanic Ridge, Clyde, Clyde North, Junction Village, and Cranbourne West, where newly constructed dwellings draw in waves of household-forming couples and families from the west. This variety of function and role of the small areas in City of Casey means that population outcomes differ significantly across the municipality.

Future development opportunity

Demand for housing within the south eastern suburbs is forecast to remain high into the future. However, within the region there is little remaining opportunity for substantial residential development in the Cities of Frankston and Kingston. Much of the regional demand can be expected to transfer to new release areas within the Shire of Cardinia over the next 10 years; however, as available "greenfield" opportunities in Cardinia are developed and land becomes scarce, there will be greater pressure on residential development fronts in the City of Casey. Casey is well-provisioned to take a substantial population increase in the short to medium term owing to its still large reserve of greenfield development potential just in from the Urban Growth Boundary. However, once that land potential is realised in the next 10-15 years, capacity to grow the number of dwellings in the LGA drops off significantly and population is very likely to stabilise. Some housing demand would be met through densification around the activity centre of Cranbourne, but rezoning land currently marked for other uses or that under low-density residential will become increasingly important into the future. Further adjustments to the Urban Growth Boundary are the only way to provide additional greenfield development land in the City of Casey, but there are no known plans for such action at this stage.

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