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City of CaseyPopulation forecast

City of Casey

Drivers of population change

Historical migration flows, City of Casey, 2011-2016

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

The City of Casey is a rapidly developing residential area located in the outer south eastern suburbs of Melbourne, with large areas of land still allocated for urban development and surrounding rural areas. The City of Casey encompasses a total land area of about 400 square kilometres. Rural land is used mainly for grazing, horse agistment, market gardening, flower growing and open space/parklands.

Significant residential development did not occur in the City of Casey until the post-war years, beginning in Doveton in the 1950s, and then expanding to cover much of the northern half of the City. In the 1960s, the Berwick corridor was identified as one of Melbourne’s growth corridors, with large areas around Cranbourne released for development in the 1980s. Since then the City of Casey has been one of Australia’s fastest growing areas, catering for a large proportion of Melbourne’s fringe development. The population nearly doubled within 15 years around the turn of the century, rising from about 113,000 in 1991 to about 223,000 in 2006. During that time most growth occurred in Narre Warren South, Berwick (South), Hampton Park and Cranbourne East. Although the amount of remaining developable land in the Narre Warren South-Berwick area has been substantially exhausted, the pattern of population growth is expected to persist. Continuing growth will be driven by development in greenfield areas around Cranbourne, in particular the new release areas of West Cranbourne and the new suburb of Botanic Ridge. In the long term, rapid growth will be sustained by the development of large PSP areas of Clyde North, Clyde Creek and Clyde South.

Much of the continuing significant demand for new housing comes from new young families and couples from within Casey, as well as areas to the west, such as Dandenong, Keysborough and Rowville. Many of these areas developed in the 1970s and 1980s, and there is strong demand from children who grew up there who are now forming their own households. In addition, the City of Greater Dandenong is a major ’port’ for overseas migrants, some of whom are likely to continue to look to settle in suburbs in the City of Casey in the coming decades. It is assumed that a number of these patterns will continue into the future, most notably flows into the City of Casey from the west, while the maturing of families within the City, notably in Berwick (North) – Beaconsfield, Berwick (South) and Narre Warren South can be expected to provide additional demand, as children leave home to form households of their own within the City. The more recently developed areas of the City, in contrast, will experience an increase in smaller households in the coming years as children leave home and families age. It is likely that, in the longer term, the ageing of the population will result in a loss of population within these suburbs.

With the progressive residential development of the City, the large size of the municipality and the broad range of land uses across the City, areas have developed different roles within the housing market. Areas such as Berwick (North)-Beaconsfield, Berwick (South), Narre Warren, Narre Warren South, Cranbourne East and Cranbourne West have had significant residential development in more recent years and are attractive to couples and families seeking new housing opportunities. In the future, however, these opportunities will be much diminished with limited opportunities to move into dwellings as these suburbs develop a mature housing market. The more rural parts of the City, particularly around Casey Foothills and Casey Coast are attractive to mature families looking to upgrade to their second and third home and in most cases seeking a rural environment and lifestyle. Similarly, Endeavour Hills, a developed suburb, has larger lots that attract second and third home buyers. The older established areas of the City, such as Hallam and Doveton-Eumemmerring tend to attract lower to middle income families and young adults in single or couple households owing to a broader range of housing options and tenure. Hampton Park, which was developed in the 1970s and 1980s, and Lynbrook–Lyndhurst, which is currently being developed, offer home owning opportunities to lower and middle income families and first home buyers. Cranbourne offers a broader range of housing opportunities for younger adults and first home buyers. In the case of Clyde-Clyde North, Botanic Ridge-Junction Village, Cranbourne West previous migration patterns are likely to dwarfed by new patterns created by the wave of household forming couples and families from the west, as these areas enters its growth phase. This variety of function and role of the small areas in City of Casey means that population outcomes differ significantly across the municipality.

There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next five to twenty years. Large new ’greenfield’ opportunities are planned within Cranbourne West and Clyde-Clyde North, whilst Cranbourne East and Cranbourne West are currently being developed providing significant development potential in the short to medium term. Areas such as Lynbrook-Lyndhurst, is coming to the end of its growth phase and can be expected to have much lower levels of development in the future. Similarly, several recently developed areas, such as Berwick (North)-Beaconsfield, Berwick (South), Narre Warren and Narre Warren South have very limited opportunities in the future for new residential development, although, in the longer term, there is likely to some opportunities for medium-higher density development within the older parts of Narre Warren and Berwick Town Centre. There are likely to be other greenfield, infill and rural residential development opportunities throughout the City, albeit at lower levels than the major growth areas identified above. Overall, should the current Urban Growth Boundary be maintained, it is likely that there will be a progressive decrease in the amount of development experienced within the City. However, should the Urban Growth Boundary be moved to incorporate part or most of the localities of Clyde-Clyde North, there will be substantial "greenfield" opportunities within the City of Casey, ensuring that the City continues to remain a major area of growth.

Future development opportunity

Demand for housing within the south eastern suburbs is forecast to remain high into the future. However, within the region there is little remaining opportunity for substantial residential development in the Cities of Frankston and Kingston. Much of the regional demand can be expected to transfer to new release areas within the Shire of Cardinia over the next 10 years; however, as available "greenfield" opportunities in Cardinia are developed and land becomes scarce, there will be greater pressure on residential development fronts in the City of Casey. Since much of the land identified within the previous Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) had already been developed, the expectation of future land shortage prompted the State Government to extend the UGB to encompass the localities of Clyde and Clyde North. While this substantially increased future "greenfield" opportunities within the City of Casey, it may be necessary to encourage higher densities and town centre development within the developed areas of the region, most likely in Berwick, Cranbourne and Narre Warren around the railway stations. To accommodate future levels of housing demand, there may also be increased pressure to rezone land currently marked for other uses or to rezone current low-density areas.

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