City of CaseyPopulation forecast
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City of Casey

Births and deaths

In 2017, Cranbourne West is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.29 (births per woman), this is expected to increase to 2.30 in 2041.

The number of births in the City of Casey are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
City of CaseyYearChange between 2017 and 2041
Area20172041Number
City of Casey2.022.04+0.02
Berwick2.041.99-0.05
Botanic Ridge2.132.10-0.03
Casey Coast1.961.95-0.01
Casey Foothills (Harkaway - Narre Warren North)1.961.95-0.01
Clyde2.112.10-0.01
Clyde North2.132.10-0.03
Cranbourne1.951.94-0.02
Cranbourne East2.132.09-0.05
Cranbourne North2.132.10-0.03
Cranbourne South1.872.08+0.21
Cranbourne West2.292.30+0.01
Devon Meadows1.821.95+0.13
Doveton - Eumemmerring1.941.89-0.05
Endeavour Hills1.951.90-0.05
Hallam1.951.90-0.05
Hampton Park1.962.01+0.05
Junction Village1.711.95+0.23
Lynbrook2.132.10-0.03
Lyndhurst2.132.10-0.03
Lysterfield South1.541.95+0.41
Narre Warren1.941.91-0.02
Narre Warren South1.941.92-0.02
Pearcedale1.961.95-0.01

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, March 2019.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in the City of Casey is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for the City of Casey, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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