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Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

Pakenham East Precinct

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Pakenham East Precinct will increase by an average of 360 dwellings per annum to 7,234 in 2041.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Cardinia Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

Dwelling counts for 2021 have been adjusted to reflect Census results. Specific assumptions from 2022 onwards:

Residential development forecasts assume:

  • Average growth of 360 dwellings per annum from 2021-2041
  • Lower rates of development are forecast in the short term, with rates increasing to over 770 dwellings per annum by 2031. Post 2031 the rate development is expected to gradually decline to under 100 dwellings per annum post 2039 and development opportunities are realized.
  • Low level of infill (1 dwellings per annum) assumed

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