Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Cardinia Road Precinct

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Cardinia Road Precinct will increase by an average of 184 dwellings per annum to 10,689 in 2041.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Cardinia Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2017 dwelling additions are based on building approvals, lagged by 12-18 months. From 2016 onwards:

  • Agate Lane subdivision - 34 dwellings (2017)
  • Amberlea Estate - 14 dwellings (2017-2019)
  • Watergrass - 51 dwellings (2017-2019)
  • Somerset Havana - 25 dwellings (2017-2020)
  • Arena Estate - 15 dwellings (2017-2020)
  • Grandvue - Pakenham part - 84 dwellings (2017-2021)
  • Lakeland Estate - 458 dwellings (2017-2021)
  • Arcadia Estate - 845 dwellings (2017-2021)
  • Worthington Estate - 201 dwellings (2017-2023)
  • Grandvue Estate - 446 dwellings (2017-2025)
  • Parkview Terraces - 77 dwellings (2018-2020)
  • 105 Mary Street - 69 dwellings (2019)
  • Lakeside Square - 127 dwellings (2019-2021)
  • 2-4 Village Way - 61 dwellings (2020)
  • 37 Mary Street - 79 dwellings (2021-2023)
  • Future urban development - 2,005 dwellings (2021-2037)
  • Small sites - 15 dwellings
  • No township or urban infill assumed
  • No rural infill assumed
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2041 Total dwellings: 10,689 2040 Total dwellings: 10,689 2039 Total dwellings: 10,689 2038 Total dwellings: 10,689 2037 Total dwellings: 10,689 2036 Total dwellings: 10,684 2035 Total dwellings: 10,674 2034 Total dwellings: 10,654 2033 Total dwellings: 10,609 2032 Total dwellings: 10,524 2031 Total dwellings: 10,429 2030 Total dwellings: 10,321 2029 Total dwellings: 10,161 2028 Total dwellings: 9,986 2027 Total dwellings: 9,821 2026 Total dwellings: 9,634 2025 Total dwellings: 9,466 2024 Total dwellings: 9,207 2023 Total dwellings: 8,982 2022 Total dwellings: 8,738 2021 Total dwellings: 8,575 2020 Total dwellings: 8,346 2019 Total dwellings: 7,956 2018 Total dwellings: 7,263 2017 Total dwellings: 6,587 2041 Total dwellings: 10,689 2040 Total dwellings: 10,689 2039 Total dwellings: 10,689 2038 Total dwellings: 10,689 2037 Total dwellings: 10,689 2036 Total dwellings: 10,684 2035 Total dwellings: 10,674 2034 Total dwellings: 10,654 2033 Total dwellings: 10,609 2032 Total dwellings: 10,524 2031 Total dwellings: 10,429 2030 Total dwellings: 10,321 2029 Total dwellings: 10,161 2028 Total dwellings: 9,986 2027 Total dwellings: 9,821 2026 Total dwellings: 9,634 2025 Total dwellings: 9,466 2024 Total dwellings: 9,207 2023 Total dwellings: 8,982 2022 Total dwellings: 8,738 2021 Total dwellings: 8,575 2020 Total dwellings: 8,346 2019 Total dwellings: 7,956 2018 Total dwellings: 7,263 2017 Total dwellings: 6,587 2041 Forecast development: 0 2040 Forecast development: 0 2039 Forecast development: 0 2038 Forecast development: 0 2037 Forecast development: 5 2036 Forecast development: 10 2035 Forecast development: 20 2034 Forecast development: 45 2033 Forecast development: 85 2032 Forecast development: 95 2031 Forecast development: 108 2030 Forecast development: 160 2029 Forecast development: 175 2028 Forecast development: 165 2027 Forecast development: 187 2026 Forecast development: 168 2025 Forecast development: 259 2024 Forecast development: 225 2023 Forecast development: 244 2022 Forecast development: 163 2021 Forecast development: 229 2020 Forecast development: 390 2019 Forecast development: 693 2018 Forecast development: 676 2017 Forecast development: 506
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
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