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Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

Rural (South and East) Subregion

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Rural (South and East) Subregion indicate a 37.5% increase in population under working age, a 36.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 28.9% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Rural (South and East) Subregion is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Rural (South and East) Subregion - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 49266.51,2756.81,5296.6+603
5 to 91,0277.21,4147.51,6917.3+665
10 to 141,0277.21,4087.51,7177.4+690
15 to 191,0117.11,2226.51,5446.6+534
20 to 248425.99775.21,2465.3+403
25 to 298405.91,0455.61,2535.4+413
30 to 347655.41,1946.31,4226.1+658
35 to 398395.91,3657.31,6257.0+787
40 to 448976.31,2726.81,6036.9+706
45 to 491,0517.41,1736.21,5286.6+477
50 to 541,0367.31,1446.11,4616.3+425
55 to 599997.01,1916.31,3855.9+387
60 to 647845.51,1015.91,2535.4+469
65 to 697855.59735.21,1374.9+352
70 to 745674.07213.81,0014.3+434
75 to 793662.65993.28163.5+450
80 to 842381.73842.05902.5+352
85 and over2591.83521.94932.1+235
Total persons14,258100.018,808100.023,297100.0+9,039
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Rural (South and East) Subregion was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 7.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 527 and account for 7.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 1,414 persons.

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