Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Rural (South and East) Subregion

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Rural (South and East) Subregion indicate a 32.2% increase in population under working age, a 38.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a 22.9% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Rural (South and East) Subregion - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 49406.61,2787.01,6946.7+754
5 to 91,0287.21,3647.51,8547.3+826
10 to 141,0227.11,3107.21,8557.3+833
15 to 191,0057.01,1406.31,6606.5+655
20 to 248485.99445.21,3455.3+496
25 to 298596.01,0235.61,3585.3+500
30 to 347645.31,1606.41,5216.0+757
35 to 398355.81,2807.01,7306.8+895
40 to 448946.21,1956.61,7126.7+818
45 to 491,0437.31,1156.11,6516.5+608
50 to 541,0327.21,0906.01,5896.2+557
55 to 599936.91,1376.21,5065.9+512
60 to 647865.51,0525.81,3735.4+587
65 to 697985.69565.21,2574.9+458
70 to 745894.17624.21,1414.5+552
75 to 793672.66373.59293.6+562
80 to 842501.74232.36872.7+438
85 and over2571.83622.06092.4+352
Total persons14,312100.018,228100.025,469100.0+11,158

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2018.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 609 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 687 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 929 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 1,141 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 1,257 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 1,373 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 1,506 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 1,589 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 1,651 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 1,712 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 1,730 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 1,521 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 1,358 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 1,345 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 1,660 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 1,855 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 1,854 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 1,694 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 362 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 423 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 637 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 762 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 956 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 1,052 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 1,137 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 1,090 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 1,115 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 1,195 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 1,280 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 1,160 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 1,023 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 944 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 1,140 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 1,310 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 1,364 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 1,278 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 257 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 250 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 367 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 589 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 798 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 786 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 993 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 1,032 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 1,043 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 894 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 835 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 764 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 859 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 848 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 1,005 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 1,022 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 1,028 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 940
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 247 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 265 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 292 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 379 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 300 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 321 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 369 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 499 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 536 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 516 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 451 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 361 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 335 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 400 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 520 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 545 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 490 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 416 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 105 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 173 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 270 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 173 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 158 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 266 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 143 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 58 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 72 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 301 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 444 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 396 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 164 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 96 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 135 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 288 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 336 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 338
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Rural (South and East) Subregion was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 7.3% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 444 and account for 7.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 1,364 persons.

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