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Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

Growth Area Subregion

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Growth Area Subregion indicate a 27.2% increase in females under working age, a 37.2% increase in females of retirement age, and a 27.8% increase in females of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Growth Area Subregion - Total females202120262041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 43,4448.44,6338.85,0057.3+1,561
5 to 93,3498.24,0527.74,9747.2+1,625
10 to 142,8006.83,5136.74,4996.5+1,699
15 to 192,2215.43,0165.73,9515.7+1,730
20 to 242,5756.33,3216.34,0605.9+1,486
25 to 293,5088.64,4478.44,8997.1+1,391
30 to 344,08810.04,9429.45,2967.7+1,208
35 to 393,7069.04,5718.74,9677.2+1,261
40 to 442,6996.63,7647.14,3316.3+1,632
45 to 492,4315.92,9995.74,0755.9+1,644
50 to 542,1435.22,6785.13,7715.5+1,628
55 to 591,7784.32,3504.53,4905.1+1,712
60 to 641,5543.82,0383.93,1584.6+1,605
65 to 691,3463.31,8783.63,1464.6+1,800
70 to 741,3433.31,6473.13,1354.6+1,792
75 to 799512.31,3652.62,6883.9+1,738
80 to 845491.38131.51,7852.6+1,235
85 and over5231.37611.41,6182.4+1,095
Total persons41,006100.052,786100.068,849100.0+27,843
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2022.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for females in Growth Area Subregion was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 10.0% of the total females.

The largest increase in females between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 0 to 4, which is expected to increase by 1,188 and account for 8.8% of the total females.

The largest female 5 year age group in 2026 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 4,942 females.

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