Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Growth Area Subregion

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Growth Area Subregion indicate a 104.1% increase in population under working age, a 75.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 82.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Growth Area Subregion - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 46,11310.012,15710.613,6289.1+7,515
5 to 95,0728.310,7099.412,7388.5+7,667
10 to 144,1646.88,4587.411,3097.6+7,145
15 to 193,8066.27,1346.210,4297.0+6,623
20 to 244,2997.07,7336.810,2026.8+5,903
25 to 295,1978.59,4608.310,4677.0+5,270
30 to 345,6809.310,3299.011,0117.4+5,331
35 to 394,5977.59,1258.010,4507.0+5,853
40 to 444,2527.07,5566.69,7796.6+5,528
45 to 493,8606.36,4845.79,0546.1+5,194
50 to 543,1735.25,9005.28,0325.4+4,859
55 to 592,6304.34,9054.37,1194.8+4,489
60 to 642,1863.63,8443.46,1134.1+3,927
65 to 692,0453.33,0972.75,3643.6+3,319
70 to 741,5962.62,6532.34,5603.1+2,964
75 to 791,1141.82,2452.03,5712.4+2,456
80 to 846931.11,4021.22,4331.6+1,740
85 and over6471.11,3081.12,7611.9+2,114
Total persons61,123100.0114,498100.0149,020100.0+87,897

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2018.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 2,761 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 2,433 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 3,571 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 4,560 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 5,364 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 6,113 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 7,119 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 8,032 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 9,054 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 9,779 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 10,450 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 11,011 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 10,467 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 10,202 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 10,429 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 11,309 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 12,738 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 13,628 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 1,308 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 1,402 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 2,245 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 2,653 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 3,097 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 3,844 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 4,905 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 5,900 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 6,484 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 7,556 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 9,125 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 10,329 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 9,460 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 7,733 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 7,134 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 8,458 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 10,709 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 12,157 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 647 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 693 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 1,114 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 1,596 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 2,045 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 2,186 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 2,630 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 3,173 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 3,860 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 4,252 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 4,597 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 5,680 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 5,197 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 4,299 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 3,806 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 4,164 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 5,072 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 6,113
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 1,453 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 1,031 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 1,326 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 1,907 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 2,267 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 2,269 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 2,214 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 2,132 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 2,569 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 2,223 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 1,325 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 682 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 1,007 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 2,470 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 3,294 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 2,851 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 2,029 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 1,472 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 661 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 709 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 1,131 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 1,057 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 1,052 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 1,658 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 2,275 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 2,727 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 2,624 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 3,305 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 4,528 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 4,649 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 4,263 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 3,434 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 3,328 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 4,294 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 5,637 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 6,043
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Growth Area Subregion was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 10.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 0 to 4, which is expected to increase by 6,043 and account for 10.6% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 12,157 persons.

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