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Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

Growth Area Subregion

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Growth Area Subregion indicate a 102.9% increase in population under working age, a 69.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 80.2% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Growth Area Subregion is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Growth Area Subregion - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 46,10510.011,1029.813,0278.5+6,922
5 to 95,0438.210,8939.613,5138.8+8,471
10 to 144,1596.89,0638.012,4018.1+8,242
15 to 193,8116.27,0446.210,9497.1+7,139
20 to 244,3247.17,0866.39,9006.5+5,576
25 to 295,2098.58,9557.910,2946.7+5,085
30 to 345,6969.310,3449.111,5607.5+5,865
35 to 394,6207.59,8278.711,8777.8+7,257
40 to 444,2396.98,2417.311,4107.5+7,171
45 to 493,8676.36,4945.710,1066.6+6,239
50 to 543,1925.25,6095.08,5785.6+5,386
55 to 592,6314.34,5514.07,1404.7+4,510
60 to 642,2133.63,5763.25,6833.7+3,470
65 to 692,0803.42,9432.64,7063.1+2,626
70 to 741,6072.62,5382.23,9692.6+2,362
75 to 791,0961.82,1511.93,1932.1+2,096
80 to 847051.21,4321.32,3291.5+1,623
85 and over6541.11,3571.22,5141.6+1,860
Total persons61,249100.0113,206100.0153,148100.0+91,899
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Growth Area Subregion was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 10.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 5 to 9, which is expected to increase by 5,851 and account for 9.6% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 11,102 persons.

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