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Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

Pakenham area

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Pakenham area indicate a 38.9% increase in population under working age, a 41.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 31.1% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Pakenham area is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Pakenham area - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 45,04510.45,9379.18,3548.8+3,309
5 to 94,0928.45,9459.18,5039.0+4,411
10 to 143,2176.65,2788.17,5938.0+4,376
15 to 192,8415.94,1426.46,4906.8+3,649
20 to 243,3426.93,9366.15,9466.3+2,604
25 to 294,1768.64,7727.36,5656.9+2,389
30 to 344,6339.65,4438.47,4517.8+2,817
35 to 393,7107.75,3118.27,5057.9+3,795
40 to 443,2226.64,6617.26,8717.2+3,649
45 to 492,8785.93,6995.75,8566.2+2,978
50 to 542,3644.93,3385.15,0405.3+2,676
55 to 592,0154.22,9024.54,3684.6+2,353
60 to 641,7483.62,3473.63,5023.7+1,754
65 to 691,6573.41,9923.12,9373.1+1,280
70 to 741,3702.81,7482.72,5372.7+1,167
75 to 799131.91,5292.42,1122.2+1,198
80 to 846281.31,0701.61,6141.7+985
85 and over5991.29461.51,7121.8+1,112
Total persons48,453100.064,996100.094,954100.0+46,501
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Pakenham area was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 10.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 10 to 14, which is expected to increase by 2,061 and account for 8.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 5,945 persons.

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