Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Pakenham Precinct

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Pakenham Precinct indicate a 28.8% increase in population under working age, a 45.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 26.8% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Pakenham Precinct - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 43,45110.24,1819.54,2878.7+837
5 to 92,7828.23,6948.43,7047.5+921
10 to 142,2276.63,0186.93,1196.3+892
15 to 191,8915.62,6596.12,9696.0+1,077
20 to 242,3807.02,9366.73,3616.8+981
25 to 292,9038.63,4147.83,7577.6+854
30 to 343,0689.03,5478.13,6987.5+631
35 to 392,4587.23,0216.93,0406.2+583
40 to 442,1536.32,5305.82,5225.1+369
45 to 491,9965.92,3325.32,4775.0+481
50 to 541,7065.02,3745.42,5265.1+819
55 to 591,4624.32,2645.22,5525.2+1,090
60 to 641,2223.61,8474.22,3414.8+1,119
65 to 691,2243.61,5853.62,2454.6+1,021
70 to 741,0823.21,4333.32,1034.3+1,021
75 to 798272.41,3023.01,7613.6+934
80 to 845591.69342.11,3042.6+746
85 and over5251.58712.01,5143.1+989
Total persons33,915100.043,941100.049,280100.0+15,365

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2018.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 1,514 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 1,304 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 1,761 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 2,103 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 2,245 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 2,341 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 2,552 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 2,526 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 2,477 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 2,522 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 3,040 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 3,698 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 3,757 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 3,361 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 2,969 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 3,119 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 3,704 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 4,287 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 871 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 934 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 1,302 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 1,433 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 1,585 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 1,847 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 2,264 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 2,374 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 2,332 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 2,530 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 3,021 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 3,547 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 3,414 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 2,936 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 2,659 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 3,018 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 3,694 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 4,181 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 525 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 559 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 827 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 1,082 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 1,224 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 1,222 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 1,462 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 1,706 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 1,996 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 2,153 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 2,458 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 3,068 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 2,903 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 2,380 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 1,891 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 2,227 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 2,782 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 3,451
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 643 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 370 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 459 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 669 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 660 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 494 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 289 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 152 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 145 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: -7 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 19 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 151 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 343 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 425 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 310 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 101 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 10 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 106 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 346 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 375 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 475 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 352 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 361 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 625 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 802 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 668 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 335 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 377 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 564 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 480 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 510 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 557 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 767 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 790 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 911 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 731
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Pakenham Precinct was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 10.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 5 to 9, which is expected to increase by 911 and account for 8.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 4,181 persons.

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