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Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

Pakenham East Precinct

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Pakenham East Precinct indicate a 2326.3% increase in population under working age, a 421.4% increase in population of retirement age, and a 1406.1% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Pakenham East Precinct is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Pakenham East Precinct - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 455.321213.92,42610.4+2,420
5 to 976.91519.92,55511.0+2,548
10 to 1476.9986.42,1449.2+2,137
15 to 1988.1734.81,6277.0+1,619
20 to 2466.41298.41,3906.0+1,384
25 to 2954.919612.91,6217.0+1,616
30 to 3465.820013.12,0648.9+2,058
35 to 3966.31368.92,2209.6+2,214
40 to 4476.8885.82,0528.8+2,046
45 to 4988.4765.01,5276.6+1,519
50 to 5477.2513.31,0894.7+1,081
55 to 5976.9241.57943.4+787
60 to 6466.3211.45272.3+521
65 to 6955.4181.23461.5+341
70 to 7433.0171.12931.3+290
75 to 7932.7140.92431.0+240
80 to 8411.2110.71710.7+170
85 and over21.6130.81370.6+136
Total persons99100.01,528100.023,226100.0+23,127
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Pakenham East Precinct was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 8.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 0 to 4, which is expected to increase by 207 and account for 13.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 212 persons.

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