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Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

Emerald - Clematis - Avonsleigh - Menzies Creek

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Emerald - Clematis - Avonsleigh - Menzies Creek indicate a 0.6% decrease in population under working age, a 35.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 0.4% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Emerald - Clematis - Avonsleigh - Menzies Creek is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Emerald - Clematis - Avonsleigh - Menzies Creek - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 44035.74135.63985.2-5
5 to 94816.84706.34596.0-22
10 to 144947.04876.64886.4-6
15 to 194977.04736.44666.1-30
20 to 243985.63855.23835.0-15
25 to 293304.73254.43124.1-18
30 to 343525.03514.73414.5-11
35 to 394115.84385.94305.7+19
40 to 445187.35146.95076.7-11
45 to 495758.15317.15377.1-38
50 to 545537.85357.25337.0-19
55 to 595557.85587.55427.1-13
60 to 644746.75367.25266.9+52
65 to 694055.74636.24666.1+61
70 to 742944.23544.84195.5+125
75 to 791422.02593.53184.2+176
80 to 84911.31692.32423.2+150
85 and over1121.61672.32383.1+127
Total persons7,082100.07,429100.07,606100.0+525
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Emerald - Clematis - Avonsleigh - Menzies Creek was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 8.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 117 and account for 3.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 55 to 59 years, with a total of 558 persons.

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