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Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

Rural (South and East) Subregion

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Rural (South and East) Subregion indicate a 17.1% increase in population under working age, a 21.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 11.5% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Rural (South and East) Subregion - Total persons202120262041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,1216.81,3887.31,7057.2+583
5 to 91,1226.81,3327.11,6967.2+574
10 to 141,2247.41,3407.11,7057.2+481
15 to 191,0976.61,2326.51,5506.6+452
20 to 249185.61,0685.71,3395.7+421
25 to 291,0926.61,1956.31,4706.2+378
30 to 341,1627.01,3487.11,6376.9+475
35 to 391,0376.31,2986.91,6176.8+581
40 to 449325.61,1326.01,4966.3+564
45 to 491,0426.31,0665.61,4586.2+416
50 to 541,0516.41,1035.81,3655.8+314
55 to 591,0936.61,0925.81,2435.3+151
60 to 649805.91,0645.61,0964.6+115
65 to 697754.79445.01,0294.4+254
70 to 747144.37363.99504.0+236
75 to 795163.16813.69123.9+396
80 to 843402.14832.67493.2+409
85 and over3171.93862.06002.5+283
Total persons16,534100.018,888100.023,617100.0+7,083
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2022.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Rural (South and East) Subregion was ages 10 to 14, which accounted for 7.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 0 to 4, which is expected to increase by 267 and account for 7.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 1,388 persons.

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