Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Rural (South and East) Subregion

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure category with the greatest increase in persons in Rural (South and East) Subregion is 'Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)'.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Rural (South and East) Subregion - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)9266.51,2756.81,5296.6+603
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)1,44810.21,99210.62,38310.2+935
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)1,2508.81,5988.51,9868.5+736
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)1,2088.51,4327.61,8297.8+620
Young workforce (25 to 34)1,60511.32,23811.92,67611.5+1,071
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)2,78719.53,81020.34,75620.4+1,970
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)2,03514.32,33412.42,84712.2+812
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)1,56911.02,07311.02,39010.3+821
Seniors (70 to 84)1,1728.21,7049.12,40810.3+1,236
Elderly aged (85 and over)2591.83521.94932.1+235
Total persons14,258100.018,808100.023,297100.0+9,039

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2019.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Forecast age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 493 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2041: 2,408 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2041: 2,390 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2041: 2,847 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2041: 4,756 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2041: 2,676 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2041: 1,829 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2041: 1,986 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2041: 2,383 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 1,529 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 352 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026: 1,704 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026: 2,073 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026: 2,334 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026: 3,810 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026: 2,238 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026: 1,432 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026: 1,598 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026: 1,992 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 1,275 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 259 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016: 1,172 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016: 1,569 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016: 2,035 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016: 2,787 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016: 1,605 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016: 1,208 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016: 1,250 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016: 1,448 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 926
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 142 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026 to 2041: 704 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026 to 2041: 317 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026 to 2041: 513 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026 to 2041: 946 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026 to 2041: 437 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026 to 2041: 397 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026 to 2041: 389 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026 to 2041: 391 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 254 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 93 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016 to 2026: 532 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016 to 2026: 505 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016 to 2026: 300 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016 to 2026: 1,024 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016 to 2026: 633 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016 to 2026: 223 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016 to 2026: 347 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016 to 2026: 544 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 349
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.

Key findings

In Rural (South and East) Subregion between 2016 and 2026, the number of persons aged under 17 is forecast to increase by 1,241 (34.2%), and will comprise 25.9% of the total population.

The number of persons aged over 60 is expected to increase by 1,129 (37.6%) and comprise 22.0% of the total population.

The largest service age group in 2026 is 'Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)', with a total of 3,810 persons.

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