Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Cardinia Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure category with the greatest increase in persons in Cardinia Shire is 'Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)'.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Cardinia Shire - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)8,3948.614,8249.516,7748.4+8,381
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)10,50310.818,42611.822,33111.2+11,828
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)7,9318.112,5918.117,0998.6+9,168
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)8,9479.213,7348.818,1729.1+9,225
Young workforce (25 to 34)14,68015.024,29615.626,75513.5+12,075
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)20,26820.831,43720.239,32319.8+19,055
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)11,32511.616,32010.521,50710.8+10,181
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)8,3818.611,7847.616,8388.5+8,458
Seniors (70 to 84)6,0486.210,2876.615,9828.0+9,934
Elderly aged (85 and over)1,1481.21,9581.33,8431.9+2,695
Total persons97,625100.0155,657100.0198,626100.0+101,000

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2018.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Forecast age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 3,843 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2041: 15,982 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2041: 16,838 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2041: 21,507 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2041: 39,323 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2041: 26,755 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2041: 18,172 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2041: 17,099 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2041: 22,331 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 16,774 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 1,958 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026: 10,287 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026: 11,784 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026: 16,320 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026: 31,437 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026: 24,296 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026: 13,734 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026: 12,591 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026: 18,426 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 14,824 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 1,148 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016: 6,048 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016: 8,381 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016: 11,325 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016: 20,268 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016: 14,680 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016: 8,947 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016: 7,931 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016: 10,503 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 8,394
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 1,885 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026 to 2041: 5,695 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026 to 2041: 5,055 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026 to 2041: 5,186 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026 to 2041: 7,886 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026 to 2041: 2,459 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026 to 2041: 4,438 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026 to 2041: 4,508 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026 to 2041: 3,905 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 1,951 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 810 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016 to 2026: 4,239 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016 to 2026: 3,403 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016 to 2026: 4,995 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016 to 2026: 11,169 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016 to 2026: 9,616 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016 to 2026: 4,787 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016 to 2026: 4,660 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016 to 2026: 7,923 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 6,430
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.

Key findings

In Cardinia Shire between 2016 and 2026, the number of persons aged under 17 is forecast to increase by 19,013 (70.9%), and will comprise 29.4% of the total population.

The number of persons aged over 60 is expected to increase by 8,452 (54.3%) and comprise 15.4% of the total population.

The largest service age group in 2026 is 'Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)', with a total of 31,437 persons.

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