Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Cardinia Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure category with the greatest increase in persons in Cardinia Shire is 'Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)'.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Cardinia Shire - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)8,3858.613,6548.815,8727.9+7,487
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)10,50410.818,95612.323,24711.6+12,742
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)7,9258.113,0968.517,9669.0+10,041
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)8,9339.212,9748.417,7668.9+8,833
Young workforce (25 to 34)14,67515.023,75615.426,81413.4+12,140
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)20,27320.833,00821.343,00221.5+22,729
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)11,33711.615,69310.121,72810.9+10,391
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)8,3918.611,4927.415,5227.8+7,131
Seniors (70 to 84)6,0246.210,0426.514,7457.4+8,721
Elderly aged (85 and over)1,1621.22,0711.33,5751.8+2,413
Total persons97,608100.0154,741100.0200,238100.0+102,630

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2019.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Forecast age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 3,575 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2041: 14,745 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2041: 15,522 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2041: 21,728 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2041: 43,002 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2041: 26,814 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2041: 17,766 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2041: 17,966 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2041: 23,247 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 15,872 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 2,071 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026: 10,042 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026: 11,492 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026: 15,693 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026: 33,008 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026: 23,756 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026: 12,974 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026: 13,096 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026: 18,956 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 13,654 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 1,162 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016: 6,024 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016: 8,391 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016: 11,337 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016: 20,273 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016: 14,675 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016: 8,933 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016: 7,925 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016: 10,504 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 8,385
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 1,504 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026 to 2041: 4,703 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026 to 2041: 4,031 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026 to 2041: 6,035 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026 to 2041: 9,994 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026 to 2041: 3,059 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026 to 2041: 4,793 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026 to 2041: 4,870 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026 to 2041: 4,291 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 2,218 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 909 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016 to 2026: 4,018 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016 to 2026: 3,101 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016 to 2026: 4,356 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016 to 2026: 12,736 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016 to 2026: 9,081 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016 to 2026: 4,040 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016 to 2026: 5,171 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016 to 2026: 8,452 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 5,269
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.

Key findings

In Cardinia Shire between 2016 and 2026, the number of persons aged under 17 is forecast to increase by 18,892 (70.5%), and will comprise 29.5% of the total population.

The number of persons aged over 60 is expected to increase by 8,028 (51.5%) and comprise 15.3% of the total population.

The largest service age group in 2026 is 'Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)', with a total of 33,008 persons.

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