Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Rural (South and East) Subregion

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Rural (South and East) Subregion indicate a 37.5% increase in population under working age, a 36.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 28.9% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Rural (South and East) Subregion - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 49266.51,2756.81,5296.6+603
5 to 91,0277.21,4147.51,6917.3+665
10 to 141,0277.21,4087.51,7177.4+690
15 to 191,0117.11,2226.51,5446.6+534
20 to 248425.99775.21,2465.3+403
25 to 298405.91,0455.61,2535.4+413
30 to 347655.41,1946.31,4226.1+658
35 to 398395.91,3657.31,6257.0+787
40 to 448976.31,2726.81,6036.9+706
45 to 491,0517.41,1736.21,5286.6+477
50 to 541,0367.31,1446.11,4616.3+425
55 to 599997.01,1916.31,3855.9+387
60 to 647845.51,1015.91,2535.4+469
65 to 697855.59735.21,1374.9+352
70 to 745674.07213.81,0014.3+434
75 to 793662.65993.28163.5+450
80 to 842381.73842.05902.5+352
85 and over2591.83521.94932.1+235
Total persons14,258100.018,808100.023,297100.0+9,039

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2019.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 493 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 590 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 816 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 1,001 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 1,137 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 1,253 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 1,385 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 1,461 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 1,528 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 1,603 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 1,625 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 1,422 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 1,253 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 1,246 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 1,544 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 1,717 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 1,691 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 1,529 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 352 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 384 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 599 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 721 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 973 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 1,101 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 1,191 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 1,144 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 1,173 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 1,272 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 1,365 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 1,194 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 1,045 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 977 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 1,222 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 1,408 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 1,414 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 1,275 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 259 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 238 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 366 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 567 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 785 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 784 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 999 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 1,036 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 1,051 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 897 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 839 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 765 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 840 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 842 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 1,011 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 1,027 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 1,027 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 926
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 142 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 206 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 217 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 280 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 165 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 152 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 195 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 318 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 354 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 331 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 260 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 229 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 209 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 268 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 322 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 309 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 278 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 254 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 93 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 146 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 233 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 153 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 187 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 317 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 192 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 108 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 122 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 375 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 527 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 429 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 205 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 135 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 212 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 381 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 387 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 349
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Rural (South and East) Subregion was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 7.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 527 and account for 7.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 1,414 persons.

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