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Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

Cardinia Shire

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Cardinia Shire is 0-4 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2021 to 2026.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Cardinia Shire depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • Substantial new housing opportunities across the Shire, especially in the growth corridor areas (Pakenham, Officer and to a lesser extent Beaconsfield), which are expected to attract predominantly young couples, young and maturing families
  • The loss of young adults leaving home is expected in many areas, as the trend of young adults leaving rural areas to find employment and education opportunities elsewhere continues
  • Strong migration gain to Cardinia Shire is expected across the 2016-2041 period

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