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Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

Cardinia Shire

Births and deaths

In 2017, Cardinia Road East is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.39 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.32 in 2041.

The number of births in Cardinia Shire are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Cardinia ShireYearChange between 2017 and 2041
Cardinia Shire2.172.15-0.02
Beaconsfield Precinct2.162.06-0.10
Beaconsfield Upper & District1.961.89-0.07
Cardinia Road Employment1.932.08+0.14
Cardinia Road Precinct2.342.27-0.08
Cockatoo - Nangana2.072.05-0.02
Emerald - Clematis - Avonsleigh - Menzies Creek2.071.99-0.08
Koo Wee Rup2.072.05-0.02
Lang Lang2.072.08+0.01
Nar Nar Goon - Tynong area2.071.99-0.08
Northern Rural1.881.87-0.01
Officer Precinct2.072.080
Pakenham Balance2.072.05-0.02
Pakenham East Precinct2.212.37+0.15
Pakenham Precinct2.232.16-0.07
Southern Rural2.072.05-0.02
Cardinia Road East2.392.32-0.07
Cardinia Road West2.212.18-0.03
Pakenham Central2.212.17-0.04
Pakenham North East2.212.14-0.07
Pakenham North West2.212.14-0.07
Pakenham South West2.282.18-0.10
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), October 2019.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Cardinia Shire is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Cardinia Shire, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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