Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Cardinia Shire

Births and deaths

In 2016 Officer Precinct is forecast to have the highest fertility rate of 3.03 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.67 in 2036.

The number of births in Cardinia Shire are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Cardinia ShireYearChange between 2016 and 2036
Cardinia Shire2.322.38+0.06
Beaconsfield Precinct2.992.44-0.55
Beaconsfield Upper & District2.952.46-0.49
Cardinia Road Employment1.881.91+0.02
Cardinia Road Precinct2.322.25-0.07
Cockatoo - Nangana1.802.19+0.39
Emerald - Clematis - Avonsleigh - Menzies Creek2.072.17+0.10
Koo Wee Rup2.232.25+0.02
Lang Lang2.052.05+0.01
Nar Nar Goon - Tynong area2.122.24+0.12
Northern Rural2.592.34-0.25
Officer Precinct3.172.67-0.50
Pakenham Balance3.362.44-0.93
Pakenham East Precinct3.152.53-0.62
Pakenham Precinct2.302.26-0.05
Southern Rural2.602.31-0.29
Pakenham area2.322.31-0.01
Growth Area Subregion2.372.40+0.03
Hills Subregion2.262.29+0.03
Rural (South and East) Subregion2.282.24-0.04

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Cardinia Shire is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Cardinia Shire, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.