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City of Canada Bay CouncilPopulation forecast

City of Canada Bay Council

Drivers of population change

Development History

The City of Canada Bay is located in the inner-western suburbs of Sydney, about 6-12 kilometres from the Sydney GPO. It encompasses a total land area of 20 square kilometres, including many parks, reserves and foreshores. The original inhabitants of the Canada Bay area were the Wangal clan of the Darug Aboriginal people. European settlement dates from 1793, with land used mainly for farming. Residential growth took place during the late 1800s and early 1900s, aided by improved access and industrial growth. Significant development occurred during the post-war years. The population was relatively stable between 1991 and 1996, and then increased from nearly 54,000 in 1996 to over 65,000 in 2006 and over 80,000 in 2011. Recent growth has been largely due to the redevelopment of previous industrial sites into residential developments, particularly high density housing. Population growth is expected to continue, especially in Rhodes and along Paramatta Road.

Migration patterns

The primary housing market role that the City has played in the post war era has been to provide housing for families. This role continues, although increasingly a number of areas attract predominantly young singles and couples due to the higher density housing stock. There has been considerable conversion of industrial land to apartments in Rhodes and town house developments in Liberty Grove and Breakfast Point. The conversion of industrial land to new residential housing (especially higher density forms) is a pattern that is set to continue into the future, with future opportunities for "brownfield" development. In addition, in the mid to longer term, it is expected that there will be greater intensification of housing around the rail stations in Concord West, North Strathfield and Strathfield, as well as other centres such as Drummoyne and Five Dock. The significant amount of development that has occurred has attracted overseas migrants, as well people from inner western councils. In net terms, the area attracts young adults in their late teens and twenties and loses younger families.

Canada Bay Council area has been significantly affected by the impact of COVID-19, predominantly in the higher density areas of the City with large numbers of tertiary students, particularly overseas students, and young adults on temporary visas. In total, because of the pandemic, Canada Bay has experienced a net loss of approximately 8,500 persons to overseas migration (students and people on working visaa returning home) and a further 5,000 through internal migration. This is assumed to be a short-term effect caused by the restrictions imposed during the pandemic and the closure of State and international borders. It is likely that the migration patterns experienced prior to the pandemic will return over the next year now that those restrictions have been removed, the Council area having similar levels of population gain through net overseas migration experienced prior to the pandemic. This will potentially see a return to high levels of housing demand, fuelling the development of higher density residential housing in the established areas of the City and, depending on the level of hosing supply, a potential increase in the cost of housing.

Historical migration flows, City of Canada Bay Council, 2016-2021






Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

*Please note, the 2021 Census was undertaken during the COVID-19 pandemic, at a time where border restrictions had largely halted overseas in-migration for the 15 months prior. 2016-2021 net overseas migration levels reflect this and therefore should not necessarily be considered indicative of longer-term trends.

Housing role and function

Within City of Canada Bay, areas have developed and will continue to evolve different roles within the housing market. Variations occur due to when areas were settled, the range of land uses in the area, developer interest and the varying planning policies in play. Rhodes, Liberty Grove, Strathfield, Abbotsford-Wareemba, Drummoyne, Chiswick and Russell Lea-Rodd Point tend to attract people in their late teens and twenties due to the higher share of rental stock (apartments) and (in some cases) proximity to rail links and other services. These areas have been most affected by the pandemic, but will see a return to their long-term migration patterns as people return from interstate and overseas. Concord, Cabarita and Concord West continue to attract established and mature families. Five Dock-Canada Bay tends to attract young professional couples and singles without children, whilst Mortlake-Breakfast Point, with the development of Breakfast Point, attracts a mixed market, including "empty-nester" households, mature families and younger smaller households. With a greater share of development likely to be higher density apartments, a greater share of young adults living in smaller households is expected over the forecast period.

Housing supply

This process is heightened by the significant differences in the supply of residential development opportunities within the City which will have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next five to fifteen years. Significant development sites have been identified in Rhodes, North Strathfield-Strathfield and along Paramatta Road, while future "brownfield" opportunities are likely in Five Dock-Canada Bay. Areas with rail stations, such as North Strathfield-Strathfield and Concord West are anticipated to undergo intensification of residential stock. Finally, areas such as Abbotsford–Wareemba, Russell Lea-Rodd Point, Drummoyne and Chiswick are expected to grow more moderately with most development coming from infill type developments and intensification around the commercial centres.

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