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Campbelltown City CouncilPopulation forecast

Campbelltown City Council

Drivers of population change

The City of Campbelltown is located in Adelaide’s eastern suburbs. The City is a predominantly established, residential area with the majority of the housing stock constructed after the Second World War. The most recent residential development areas are located in the east and north-east, with construction continuing in many areas until the 1990s.

Development history

Settlement began on the banks of the Torrens River in the early 1840s, with a portion of this land subdivided in 1849. Small townships developed at Athelstone, Campbelltown, Magill and Paradise, influenced by the routes of the horse-drawn and electric tramways. Many market gardens were established in the area during the late 1800s. Significant development did not occur until the post-war years of the 1950s. The population of the City in 1960 was around 15,000, before significant development occurred in the 1960s and 1970s. The western end of the City is heavily influenced by its proximity to central Adelaide, with a greater share of inter war housing. The City of Campbelltown has had a relatively stable population over the last twenty years, with small amounts of residential development offsetting decreases in the average size of households, as children leave the family home. Much of the development in recent years has been of an infill nature, including demolition of existing dwellings as well as development of remnant market gardens.

Migration patterns

The primary housing market role that the City played over this period was to provide opportunities for second and third homebuyers, generally based on mature and older families from the surrounding suburbs of Adelaide. The City of Campbelltown is attractive due to its access to tertiary education and proximity to the City’s employment. Recent major net migration gains have come from the nearby cities of Burnside, Unley and Norwood Payneham St Peters along with a significant gain of overseas migrants who may come to the City of Campbelltown directly, or via other initial destinations in Australia. Population losses through migration have resulted in City of Campbelltown residents leaving the municipality for the City of Salisbury, City of Port Adelaide-Enfield and nearby City of Tea Tree Gully, an established corridor of movement over the years. Further afield, there are some losses of population to Greater Melbourne, Canberra and South East Queensland. As the City is well-established, the area has experienced significant regeneration of population over the last century. This has resulted in the development of a large aged-care industry, with a range of housing from retirement villages, through to hostels and nursing homes.

It is assumed that a number of these patterns will continue into the future, most notably flows into the City from areas closer to central Adelaide, the loss of population to growing areas to the north, and the attraction of Campbelltown, Hectorville, Newton, Paradise and Magill to young people alongside the attraction of Athelstone, Rostrevor and Tranmere areas to family forming households and established families.

Historical migration flows, Campbelltown City Council, 2011-2016

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

Housing role and function

With the progressive residential development of the City over a century, areas have developed different roles within the housing market. Many areas within the City tend to be attractive to established families, such as Athelstone and Rostrevor. The western and north-western areas of the City (Campbelltown, Hectorville and Paradise) are more strongly influenced by the inflow of younger people, such as tertiary students aged 18-24 years. A number of areas also attract many older people (80+), notably Campbelltown, Newton and Paradise. This variety of roles and functions played by the different small areas in the City of Campbelltown means that population outcomes differ across the City.

Housing supply

There are also differences in the supply of residential property within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the forecast period. Recent changes in zoning and allowances for more residential infill development throughout the municipality has resulted in increased rates of development and housing supply. This in turn is met by demand of people to live in the area hence the relatively high levels of population growth during the forecast period which were not experienced for many years prior to now. The more significant new residential opportunities have been identified in Campbelltown and to a lesser extent, Hectorville in the short term, with Paradise and Rostrevor increasing rates of residential supply in the mid to long term. There is likely to be other minor infill residential development opportunities throughout the City.

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