Camden CouncilPopulation forecast
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Narellan Vale

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Narellan Vale indicate a 13.2% decrease in population under working age, a 32.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 10.0% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Camden Council is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Narellan Vale - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 45427.34907.14596.8-83
5 to 95637.64947.24747.1-89
10 to 146218.45147.54977.4-124
15 to 196859.35127.44857.2-200
20 to 245597.64646.74226.3-137
25 to 294375.94406.43955.9-42
30 to 344986.74266.24116.1-87
35 to 394806.54146.04176.2-62
40 to 445557.54636.74386.5-117
45 to 496238.44436.44196.2-204
50 to 545157.04416.43935.9-122
55 to 593494.74656.83645.4+15
60 to 642773.84106.03685.5+91
65 to 692944.02854.13685.5+74
70 to 741742.42203.23174.7+144
75 to 791321.82203.22263.4+95
80 to 84580.81061.51442.2+87
85 and over230.3731.11151.7+92
Total persons7,381100.06,882100.06,713100.0-668

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 115 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 144 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 226 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 317 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 368 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 368 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 364 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 393 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 419 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 438 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 417 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 411 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 395 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 422 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 485 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 497 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 474 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 459 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 73 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 106 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 220 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 220 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 285 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 410 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 465 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 441 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 443 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 463 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 414 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 426 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 440 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 464 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 512 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 514 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 494 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 490 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 23 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 58 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 132 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 174 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 294 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 277 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 349 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 515 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 623 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 555 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 480 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 498 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 437 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 559 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 685 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 621 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 563 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 542
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 43 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 39 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: 6 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: 97 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: 83 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: -42 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: -101 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: -48 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: -24 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: -25 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 3 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: -15 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: -45 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: -42 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: -27 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: -17 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: -20 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: -31 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 49 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 48 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 89 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 47 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: -9 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 133 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 116 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -74 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -180 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: -92 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: -65 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: -72 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 3 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: -95 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: -173 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: -107 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: -69 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: -51
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Narellan Vale was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 9.3% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 60 to 64, which is expected to increase by 133 and account for 6.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 10 to 14 years, with a total of 514 persons.

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