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Camden CouncilPopulation forecast

Narellan Vale

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Narellan Vale indicate a 13.2% decrease in population under working age, a 32.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 10.0% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Narellan Vale is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Narellan Vale - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 45427.34907.14596.8-83
5 to 95637.64947.24747.1-89
10 to 146218.45147.54977.4-124
15 to 196859.35127.44857.2-200
20 to 245597.64646.74226.3-137
25 to 294375.94406.43955.9-42
30 to 344986.74266.24116.1-87
35 to 394806.54146.04176.2-62
40 to 445557.54636.74386.5-117
45 to 496238.44436.44196.2-204
50 to 545157.04416.43935.9-122
55 to 593494.74656.83645.4+15
60 to 642773.84106.03685.5+91
65 to 692944.02854.13685.5+74
70 to 741742.42203.23174.7+144
75 to 791321.82203.22263.4+95
80 to 84580.81061.51442.2+87
85 and over230.3731.11151.7+92
Total persons7,381100.06,882100.06,713100.0-668
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Narellan Vale was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 9.3% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 60 to 64, which is expected to increase by 133 and account for 6.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 10 to 14 years, with a total of 514 persons.

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