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Broken Hill CityPopulation forecast

Broken Hill City

Drivers of population change

Drivers of population change

Broken Hill City is located in far western New South Wales, about 1,100 kilometres west of Sydney and 500 kilometres east of Adelaide.

Broken Hill City Council acknowledges that the Wiljakali people were the first peoples of this country.

Development history

Charles Rasp was the first European in the area, when in 1883, he discovered lead and silver deposits. The abundant minerals found in Broken Hill were regarded the richest and largest in the world which established Broken Hill as a prosperous mining town well into the 1970s.

Due largely to the closure and consolidation of mining operations, the City has experienced continued population decline since the 1970s. However, with substantial new projects planned and under development, Broken Hill is set to experience significant population change over the forecast period.

Migration patterns

Migration to Broken Hill City is largely dependent on changes within its mining industry.

In addition to mining, the main employing industries are Health Care and Retail Trade, which account for over half of all jobs in 2016. Fluctuations in these sectors underpin much of the migration flows to and from the city.

Between 2011 and 2021, with a notable decline in population, Broken Hill City experienced significant out-migration to Mildura and South Australia. This has continued, albeit to a lesser extent, over the most recent census cycle (to 2021). Given the importance of employment as the primary driver of population change, movement to Broken Hill City is dominated by young (20-24 year olds) and mature (45-55 year olds) workers.

Historical migration flows, Broken Hill City, 2016-2021






Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

*Please note, the 2021 Census was undertaken during the COVID-19 pandemic, at a time where border restrictions had largely halted overseas in-migration for the 15 months prior. 2016-2021 net overseas migration levels reflect this and therefore should not necessarily be considered indicative of longer-term trends.

Housing role and function

The dominate household type in Broken Hill City is primarily lone persons and couples without dependents. This is reflective of the job opportunities presented in the area and the large proportion of available dwellings.

In addition to providing housing for mining workers the City is experiencing an aging population which is contribution to an increase in the number of lone person households.

Housing supply

Despite recent population decline, global demand for iron ore, lithium and other related minerals is expected to provide the impetus for positive demographic and housing change in the coming years.

Since 2016, the number of jobs in mining has doubled. In addition to this recent growth, recently announced major projects are expected to create up to 3,500 jobs over the forecast period. It is expected that many of these workers will live in Broken Hill City. In 2016 approximately 80% of City’s mining industry workers were also residents. If this proportion continues, Broken Hill City will face demand for over 700 dwellings to accommodate the influx of workers at its peak.

Any future levels of population growth and change in Broken Hill will largely be dependent on the City’s capacity to appropriately accommodate workers. This will, in part, determine the size of the workforce to be housed in temporary worker accommodation.  

With no significant housing developments recently completed, under construction or planned, it has been assumed that the forecast increase in mining sector workers will primarily be accommodated in the existing unoccupied housing stock. In 2016, unoccupied dwellings accounted for 20 percent of the City’s dwelling stock. This assumption of will be monitored to incorporate any changes to housing development activity. 

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