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City of BrimbankPopulation forecast

Cairnlea

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Cairnlea indicate a 6.5% decrease in population under working age, a 93.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 2.1% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cairnlea is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Cairnlea - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 47447.36646.36896.1-55
5 to 97787.67186.87316.4-47
10 to 148027.97927.57856.9-17
15 to 198047.98337.98377.4+33
20 to 248358.27767.48257.2-10
25 to 296846.76496.27156.3+31
30 to 347287.16386.16956.1-33
35 to 397967.86926.67366.5-60
40 to 448808.68147.77776.8-103
45 to 497837.77687.37676.7-16
50 to 546446.37357.07076.2+63
55 to 596146.06446.16725.9+58
60 to 644604.55305.05785.1+118
65 to 693113.04664.45164.5+205
70 to 741731.73423.24353.8+262
75 to 79760.72242.13523.1+276
80 to 84590.61111.12542.2+195
85 and over350.31211.13162.8+281
Total persons10,206100.010,517100.011,386100.0+1,180
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), May 2021.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Cairnlea was ages 40 to 44, which accounted for 8.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 169 and account for 3.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 15 to 19 years, with a total of 833 persons.

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