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Blacktown City CouncilPopulation forecast

Blacktown City Council

Drivers of population change

Historical migration flows, Blacktown City Council, 2011-2016

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

wn City is a predominantly residential, commercial and rural Local Government Area (LGA) in Sydney’s west. In terms of population, the City is the largest LGA in New South Wales. In the post war era, and particularly in the last 40 years, the City has catered for a significant proportion of Sydney’s demand for new housing on the urban fringe. This role is expected to continue as large areas in the north of the City have been identified for urban development over the next 20-30 years. The City has also established itself in recent decades as a major employment hub in western Sydney, capitalising on transport infrastructure such as the Western Motorway (M4), Westlink (M7) and the Hills Motorway (M2). Employment growth is expected to continue, with new areas identified for development.

Blacktown City has increased significantly in population since the Second World War. In 1947, the population of the City was 18,000 with most growth focussed around Blacktown and smaller villages along the railway lines. In the 1960s and 1970s, large scale housing development projects were undertaken in the areas to the north of Mount Druitt as well as areas around Blacktown itself. In the last twenty years, significant development has occurred in suburbs such Glenwood, Oakhurst, Plumpton, Glendenning and Stanhope Gardens. The primary housing market role that the City played in the post war period has been to provide affordable home owning opportunities for families and prospective families from areas to the east as well as migrants from overseas. This role is expected to continue with additional areas of the City being identified for future urban development over the next twenty years. This growth is currently focussed in Kellyville Ridge, The Ponds, Colebee and Ropes Crossing, which are currently being developed, and in the near future, Riverstone and Schofields, as well as in existing centres such as Blacktown and Mount Druitt. In the longer term, it is likely that growth will also occur in Marsden Park and Shanes Park. In conjunction with new development areas in neighbouring Hills Shire, the City will therefore be catering for a significant amount of metropolitan Sydney’s demand for greenfield land.

Demand for residential development in the City’s growth areas will come both from new households forming in the established areas of Blacktown City as well as areas to the east

With the variety of residential areas, natural characteristics and period of development, different areas within Blacktown City have developed different roles within the housing market. Many established areas such as Seven Hills and Kings Langley are experiencing significant net loss of persons in their 20s. These are the children of families that settled in these areas in the 1970s and 1980s and are now at the stage where they are looking to establish new households elsewhere. Many of these new households would be heading to growth suburbs such as Kellyville Ridge, The Ponds and Ropes Crossing. Major centres such as Blacktown and Mount Druitt by contrast attract young adults who are seeking access to employment and transport. These areas also have a much larger stock of medium density and rental stock. The major growth areas of the City are expected to attract a predominantly young family market. This includes areas such as Kellyville Ridge, The Ponds and Schofields. Colebee is expected to attract a slightly older family market with adults in their 30s and 40s, often with teenage children. This variety of function and role of the small areas in Blacktown City means that population outcomes differ significantly across the LGA.

There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next five to twenty years. Large new ’greenfield’ opportunities have been identified in the growth areas. These are predominantly located in Schofields, Riverstone (including the Alex Avenue Release Area), Ropes Crossing and The Ponds. In the longer term it is likely that Marsden Park, Shanes Park and the remaining areas of Riverstone will also undergo significant development with the future release of "greenfield" sites in these areas. Significant in-fill development opportunities in Blacktown and Mount Druitt are also expected to contribute significant numbers of new dwellings. By contrast, the established suburbs north of Mount Druitt are expected to provide relatively low numbers of new dwellings over the forecast period.

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