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Blacktown City CouncilPopulation forecast

Blacktown City Council

Births and deaths

In 2017, Whalan is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.92 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.87 in 2041.

The number of births in Blacktown City Council are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Blacktown City CouncilYearChange between 2017 and 2041
Area20172041Number
Blacktown City Council2.132.17+0.04
Acacia Gardens - Parklea1.401.18-0.22
Angus - Richards - Vineyard West2.352.31-0.05
Bidwill2.532.49-0.03
Blackett2.532.50-0.03
Blacktown2.072.02-0.06
Bungarribee2.842.80-0.03
Colebee2.352.31-0.05
Dean Park2.372.32-0.05
Dharruk2.532.50-0.03
Doonside2.052.00-0.05
Emerton2.842.80-0.03
Glendenning1.971.93-0.05
Glenwood1.741.69-0.05
Hassall Grove1.931.88-0.05
Hebersham2.532.50-0.03
Kings Langley2.041.99-0.05
Kings Park2.532.47-0.06
Lalor Park2.212.17-0.05
Lethbridge Park2.822.77-0.05
Marayong2.182.14-0.04
Marsden Park - Melonba - Shanes Park2.352.31-0.05
Minchinbury1.901.85-0.05
Mount Druitt2.202.13-0.06
Oakhurst1.931.89-0.05
Plumpton1.931.89-0.04
Prospect - Huntingwood - Arndell Park1.771.74-0.02
Quakers Hill1.911.87-0.04
Riverstone - Grantham Farm - Vineyard East2.342.30-0.04
Rooty Hill - Eastern Creek1.971.92-0.04
Ropes Crossing2.822.79-0.03
Schofields - Nirimba Fields2.312.300
Seven Hills1.981.93-0.05
Shalvey2.402.37-0.04
Stanhope Gardens - Kellyville Ridge2.122.07-0.05
Tallawong - Rouse Hill2.352.31-0.05
The Ponds2.352.30-0.05
Toongabbie1.711.66-0.05
Tregear2.822.79-0.03
Whalan2.922.87-0.05
Willmot2.822.79-0.03
Woodcroft1.981.94-0.04
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), August 2021.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Blacktown City Council is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Blacktown City Council, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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