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Bega Valley ShirePopulation forecast

Bega Valley Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Bega Valley Shire indicate a 6.0% increase in males under working age, a 6.0% increase in males of retirement age, and a 2.8% increase in males of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Bega Valley Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Bega Valley Shire - Total males202120262036Change between 2021 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 47934.59255.01,0115.1+217
5 to 99945.61,0045.41,1495.8+155
10 to 141,0966.21,1276.11,2296.2+133
15 to 199235.29835.31,0355.2+112
20 to 246823.87614.18234.1+141
25 to 297494.27944.38794.4+129
30 to 347984.59044.99864.9+188
35 to 398404.79165.01,0245.1+184
40 to 447774.49064.91,0215.1+244
45 to 499665.49345.11,0965.5+131
50 to 541,1106.31,0745.81,1555.8+45
55 to 591,3097.41,2746.91,2746.4-35
60 to 641,6369.21,5228.21,5297.7-107
65 to 691,6549.31,6488.91,5978.0-57
70 to 741,4468.21,5048.11,4877.5+40
75 to 799275.21,1546.21,2556.3+328
80 to 845623.26293.48514.3+289
85 and over4732.74322.35422.7+69
Total persons17,735100.018,491100.019,943100.0+2,208
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), February 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for males in Bega Valley Shire was ages 65 to 69, which accounted for 9.3% of the total males.

The largest increase in males between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 228 and account for 6.2% of the total males.

The largest male 5 year age group in 2026 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 1,648 males.

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