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City of BaysidePopulation forecast

Cheltenham

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Cheltenham indicate a 27.1% increase in population under working age, a 23.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 22.5% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cheltenham is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Cheltenham - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42606.93226.94216.9+162
5 to 92526.73226.94116.7+159
10 to 142316.13006.53876.3+156
15 to 191764.72715.83465.6+170
20 to 242155.72375.13145.1+99
25 to 292155.72465.33325.4+117
30 to 342366.32966.43886.3+152
35 to 392516.73407.34437.2+192
40 to 443008.03557.64567.4+156
45 to 492977.93367.24477.3+150
50 to 542306.13106.73916.4+161
55 to 592406.42836.13635.9+123
60 to 642235.92455.33355.4+112
65 to 691854.92335.03145.1+130
70 to 741574.21994.32754.5+118
75 to 79872.31493.22163.5+128
80 to 84832.21112.41722.8+89
85 and over1173.1851.81362.2+19
Total persons3,754100.04,641100.06,146100.0+2,393
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, August 2020.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Cheltenham was ages 40 to 44, which accounted for 8.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 15 to 19, which is expected to increase by 95 and account for 5.8% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 40 to 44 years, with a total of 355 persons.

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