Population and age structure
Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure category with the greatest increase in persons in Black Rock is 'Seniors (70 to 84)'.
Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.
The forecast age groups of the City of Bayside is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.
|Forecast age structure - Service age groups|
|Black Rock - Total persons||2016||2026||2036||Change between 2016 and 2036|
|Age group (years)||Number||%||Number||%||Number||%||Number|
|Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)||304||4.6||347||5.0||43||357||5.1||+53||43||10||17.5||0||28||3|
|Primary schoolers (5 to 11)||586||8.9||558||8.1||-28||574||8.2||-12||-28||16||-2.1||5||29||3|
|Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)||538||8.1||485||7.0||-53||499||7.1||-39||-53||14||-7.3||12||30||3|
|Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)||424||6.4||541||7.9||117||495||7.1||+71||117||-47||16.6||18||31||3|
|Young workforce (25 to 34)||477||7.2||510||7.4||33||537||7.7||+60||33||27||12.6||25||32||3|
|Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)||1,341||20.3||1,323||19.2||-18||1,319||18.8||-22||-18||-4||-1.7||35||33||3|
|Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)||1,001||15.1||964||14.0||-36||955||13.6||-45||-36||-9||-4.5||50||34||3|
|Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)||942||14.2||922||13.4||-20||900||12.9||-42||-20||-22||-4.4||60||35||3|
|Seniors (70 to 84)||761||11.5||1,071||15.6||310||1,115||15.9||+354||310||44||46.5||70||36||3|
|Elderly aged (85 and over)||236||3.6||161||2.3||-75||253||3.6||+17||-75||92||7.1||85||37||3|
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (opens a new window), the population experts, November 2017.
In Black Rock between 2016 and 2026, the number of persons aged under 17 is forecast to decrease by 38 (2.7%), and will comprise 20.2% of the total population.
The number of persons aged over 60 is expected to increase by 215 (11.1%) and comprise 31.3% of the total population.
The largest service age group in 2026 is 'Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)', with a total of 1,323 persons.