City of BaysidePopulation forecast
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Black Rock

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure category with the greatest increase in persons in Black Rock is 'Seniors (70 to 84)'.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Bayside is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Black Rock - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)3044.63475.03575.1+53
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)5868.95588.15748.2-12
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)5388.14857.04997.1-39
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)4246.45417.94957.1+71
Young workforce (25 to 34)4777.25107.45377.7+60
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)1,34120.31,32319.21,31918.8-22
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)1,00115.196414.095513.6-45
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)94214.292213.490012.9-42
Seniors (70 to 84)76111.51,07115.61,11515.9+354
Elderly aged (85 and over)2363.61612.32533.6+17
Total persons6,610100.06,883100.07,004100.0+393

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Forecast age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 253 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2036: 1,115 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2036: 900 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2036: 955 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2036: 1,319 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2036: 537 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2036: 495 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2036: 499 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2036: 574 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 357 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 161 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026: 1,071 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026: 922 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026: 964 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026: 1,323 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026: 510 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026: 541 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026: 485 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026: 558 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 347 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 236 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016: 761 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016: 942 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016: 1,001 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016: 1,341 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016: 477 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016: 424 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016: 538 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016: 586 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 304
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 92 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026 to 2036: 44 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026 to 2036: -22 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026 to 2036: -9 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026 to 2036: -4 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026 to 2036: 27 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026 to 2036: -47 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026 to 2036: 14 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026 to 2036: 16 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 10 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: -75 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016 to 2026: 310 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016 to 2026: -20 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016 to 2026: -36 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016 to 2026: -18 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016 to 2026: 33 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016 to 2026: 117 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016 to 2026: -53 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016 to 2026: -28 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 43
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.

Key findings

In Black Rock between 2016 and 2026, the number of persons aged under 17 is forecast to decrease by 38 (2.7%), and will comprise 20.2% of the total population.

The number of persons aged over 60 is expected to increase by 215 (11.1%) and comprise 31.3% of the total population.

The largest service age group in 2026 is 'Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)', with a total of 1,323 persons.

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