City of BaysidePopulation forecast
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Black Rock

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Black Rock indicate a 2.6% decrease in population under working age, a 12.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 3.1% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Bayside is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Black Rock - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 43044.63475.03575.1+53
5 to 93925.94005.84095.8+16
10 to 144857.34035.84155.9-70
15 to 193585.44095.94085.8+49
20 to 243134.73725.43374.8+24
25 to 292113.22573.72703.9+59
30 to 342664.02533.72673.8+1
35 to 393485.33344.83485.00
40 to 444236.44797.04766.8+53
45 to 495708.65117.44957.1-75
50 to 545278.04536.64806.9-47
55 to 594747.25117.44756.8+2
60 to 644576.94897.14426.3-15
65 to 694847.34336.34586.5-26
70 to 743725.64126.04406.3+68
75 to 792163.34005.83805.4+164
80 to 841722.62593.82944.2+122
85 and over2363.61612.32533.6+17
Total persons6,610100.06,883100.07,004100.0+393

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 253 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 294 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 380 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 440 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 458 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 442 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 475 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 480 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 495 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 476 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 348 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 267 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 270 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 337 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 408 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 415 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 409 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 357 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 161 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 259 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 400 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 412 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 433 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 489 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 511 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 453 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 511 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 479 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 334 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 253 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 257 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 372 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 409 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 403 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 400 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 347 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 236 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 172 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 216 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 372 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 484 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 457 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 474 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 527 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 570 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 423 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 348 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 266 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 211 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 313 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 358 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 485 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 392 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 304
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 92 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 36 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: -20 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: 28 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: 25 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: -47 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: -36 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: 26 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: -16 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: -2 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 14 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: 14 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: 13 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: -36 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: -2 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: 12 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: 8 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 10 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: -75 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 87 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 184 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 39 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: -51 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 31 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 37 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -73 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -59 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 56 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: -15 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: -12 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 45 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 59 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 51 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: -82 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 8 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 43
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Black Rock was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 8.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 184 and account for 5.8% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 45 to 49 years, with a total of 511 persons.

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