City of BaysidePopulation forecast
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Cheltenham

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Cheltenham is 35-39 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2016 to 2021.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across City of Bayside depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • Volatile migration profile reflecting a diversity of housing markets and the realtively low level of migration in most age groups. This is indicative of the relatively low levels of development expected over the forecast period
  • During the inital period, an attraction of young families (0-4 and 25-39 years) and older families (10-14 and 35-49 years), becoming a small net loss in the later period
  • Gain of couples in trheir 30s and 40s
  • Gain of young adults (18-29 years), attracted into higher density rental accomodation developed around the commercial core and train station
  • Little population loss through migration
Forecast net migration by age group
Forecast net migration by age group Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 9 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: 9 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: 5 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: 8 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: 12 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: 1 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: 20 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: -13 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 1 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: -10 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 54 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 53 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: -17 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: -18 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: 40 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: -11 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: -29 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: -19 Persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2021: 21 Persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2021: 25 Persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2021: 11 Persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2021: 18 Persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2021: 27 Persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2021: 20 Persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2021: 33 Persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2021: 11 Persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2021: 18 Persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2021: 52 Persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2021: 107 Persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2021: 88 Persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2021: 15 Persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2021: 48 Persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2021: 76 Persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2021: 8 Persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2021: -7 Persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2021: 16 Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 9 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: 9 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: 5 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: 8 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: 12 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: 1 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: 20 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: -13 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 1 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: -10 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 54 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 53 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: -17 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: -18 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: 40 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: -11 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: -29 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: -19 Persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2021: 21 Persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2021: 25 Persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2021: 11 Persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2021: 18 Persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2021: 27 Persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2021: 20 Persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2021: 33 Persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2021: 11 Persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2021: 18 Persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2021: 52 Persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2021: 107 Persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2021: 88 Persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2021: 15 Persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2021: 48 Persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2021: 76 Persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2021: 8 Persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2021: -7 Persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2021: 16
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
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