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City of BaysidePopulation forecast

City of Bayside

Drivers of population change

Development History

The City of Bayside is located in the established inner southern suburbs of Melbourne. The municipality is predominantly residential, although there are major commercial centres at Brighton and Sandringham and some industrial areas in Sandringham and Cheltenham. Urban development in the City dates to the 1850s, with development initially around Brighton. Development generally followed the railway line to Sandringham (initially to North Brighton then Brighton Beach), which was constructed in the 1860s. Residential development continued up until the 1950s in areas furthest from the railway and tram such as Brighton East and Beaumaris. The primary housing market role that the City of Bayside has played during this period was to provide home owning opportunities for families and prospective families from the inner and inner southern suburbs of Melbourne.

Migration patterns

The City matured significantly and by the 1970s and 1980s, was beginning to regenerate due to mortality in the original settlers. This provided opportunities for mature families to move in and take advantage of the access to quality schools in the area and coastal access. During the 1990s, some development opportunities were taken, with the conversion of school sites and surplus government and utility land to residential purposes. There is significant pressure for residential expansion within Bayside from both existing residents and from external migrants, most notably from overseas and interstate. However, the retirement of population as well as affordability issues have resulted in the loss of people to the middle southern suburbs and the Mornington Peninsula respectively. It is assumed that a number of these patterns will continue into the future, notably the large overseas flows into the City.

Historical migration flows, City of Bayside, 2011-2016

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

Housing role and function

With the residential development of the City over a century and the large size of the municipality, areas have developed different roles within the housing market. These roles generally fall under two categories: 1. Young adults and young families and; 2. Established and mature families. The first pattern tends to affect areas in the east of the municipality, particularly Hampton East, Highett and Cheltenham. The second pattern is significant in the coastal areas of the City, such as Brighton, Hampton, Sandringham, Black Rock and Beaumaris, where the housing stock, the amenity and attractiveness of the areas drive local migration patterns. This difference in function and role of the small areas in the City of Bayside means that population outcomes differ across the municipality.

Housing supply

There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next five to twenty years. The major source of additional dwellings and households in the City will be in the larger redevelopment sites and through infill and development associated with activity centres. Suburbs with the most significant amount of development include areas with activity centres such as Brighton, Hampton and Sandringham and areas with development sites such as Highett.

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