Baw Baw ShirePopulation forecast
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Warragul (North)

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Warragul (North) will increase by an average of 196 dwellings per annum to 9,545 in 2041.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Baw Baw Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

Residential development forecasts assume:

  • Average growth of 196 dwellings per annum from 2017-2041
  • Development driven by Waterford Rise (1,028 dwellings), Paramount Springs (301 dwellings), Bowen Heights (166 dwellings), Emberwood (329 dwellings), Nursery Rise (183 dwellings), Brandy Creek and Lillico Road (290 dwellings) and Copelands Road (490 dwellings) in the short to medium term. Medium to longer term development driven by Normanby Street UGZ (358 dwellings), Warragul PSP (1,140 dwellings) including Bowen, Lillico, Carrington, Copeland, Dollarburn, and Pharoah precincts
  • Low to medium level of infill (11 dwellings per annum) assumed

Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2041 Total dwellings: 9,545 2040 Total dwellings: 9,346 2039 Total dwellings: 9,147 2038 Total dwellings: 8,947 2037 Total dwellings: 8,748 2036 Total dwellings: 8,548 2035 Total dwellings: 8,349 2034 Total dwellings: 8,150 2033 Total dwellings: 7,951 2032 Total dwellings: 7,751 2031 Total dwellings: 7,554 2030 Total dwellings: 7,354 2029 Total dwellings: 7,154 2028 Total dwellings: 6,953 2027 Total dwellings: 6,753 2026 Total dwellings: 6,552 2025 Total dwellings: 6,356 2024 Total dwellings: 6,160 2023 Total dwellings: 5,965 2022 Total dwellings: 5,768 2021 Total dwellings: 5,575 2020 Total dwellings: 5,385 2019 Total dwellings: 5,195 2018 Total dwellings: 5,007 2017 Total dwellings: 4,825 2041 Total dwellings: 9,545 2040 Total dwellings: 9,346 2039 Total dwellings: 9,147 2038 Total dwellings: 8,947 2037 Total dwellings: 8,748 2036 Total dwellings: 8,548 2035 Total dwellings: 8,349 2034 Total dwellings: 8,150 2033 Total dwellings: 7,951 2032 Total dwellings: 7,751 2031 Total dwellings: 7,554 2030 Total dwellings: 7,354 2029 Total dwellings: 7,154 2028 Total dwellings: 6,953 2027 Total dwellings: 6,753 2026 Total dwellings: 6,552 2025 Total dwellings: 6,356 2024 Total dwellings: 6,160 2023 Total dwellings: 5,965 2022 Total dwellings: 5,768 2021 Total dwellings: 5,575 2020 Total dwellings: 5,385 2019 Total dwellings: 5,195 2018 Total dwellings: 5,007 2017 Total dwellings: 4,825 2041 Forecast development: 199 2040 Forecast development: 199 2039 Forecast development: 200 2038 Forecast development: 199 2037 Forecast development: 200 2036 Forecast development: 199 2035 Forecast development: 199 2034 Forecast development: 199 2033 Forecast development: 200 2032 Forecast development: 197 2031 Forecast development: 200 2030 Forecast development: 200 2029 Forecast development: 201 2028 Forecast development: 200 2027 Forecast development: 201 2026 Forecast development: 196 2025 Forecast development: 196 2024 Forecast development: 195 2023 Forecast development: 197 2022 Forecast development: 193 2021 Forecast development: 190 2020 Forecast development: 190 2019 Forecast development: 188 2018 Forecast development: 182 2017 Forecast development: 170
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.
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