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Baw Baw ShirePopulation forecast

Baw Baw Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Baw Baw Shire indicate a 15.3% increase in population under working age, a 13.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 11.8% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Baw Baw Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Baw Baw Shire - Total persons202120262041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 43,5806.24,4956.95,8806.7+2,300
5 to 93,6466.34,2346.55,9086.8+2,262
10 to 143,8916.84,0906.35,6706.5+1,780
15 to 193,2185.63,8936.05,1255.9+1,906
20 to 242,9515.13,3905.24,6725.4+1,722
25 to 293,5476.23,8696.05,1875.9+1,641
30 to 343,6926.44,2366.55,5346.3+1,843
35 to 393,4476.04,0436.25,3046.1+1,857
40 to 443,1415.53,7515.85,0465.8+1,905
45 to 493,3155.83,5985.55,0715.8+1,756
50 to 543,5796.23,7155.75,0385.8+1,459
55 to 593,6986.43,9796.15,0765.8+1,378
60 to 643,8526.74,0176.25,0155.7+1,164
65 to 693,5506.24,0506.24,9975.7+1,447
70 to 743,3575.83,5785.54,8075.5+1,450
75 to 792,3014.02,9064.53,9784.6+1,677
80 to 841,5252.61,7842.72,9203.3+1,396
85 and over1,3232.31,3372.12,0512.3+728
Total persons57,611100.064,965100.087,281100.0+29,670
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2022.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Baw Baw Shire was ages 10 to 14, which accounted for 6.8% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 0 to 4, which is expected to increase by 916 and account for 6.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 4,495 persons.

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