Baw Baw ShirePopulation forecast
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Warragul (South)

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure category with the greatest increase in persons in Warragul (South) is 'Seniors (70 to 84)'.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Baw Baw Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Warragul (South) - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)2084.52464.94275.6+219
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)3878.33747.46688.7+281
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)4058.73617.15627.3+157
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)3738.03547.05487.1+175
Young workforce (25 to 34)3958.54689.281710.6+422
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)79117.179715.71,30517.0+514
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)60113.061612.182210.7+221
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)60513.065212.985011.1+245
Seniors (70 to 84)68314.791218.01,23216.0+549
Elderly aged (85 and over)1904.12885.74555.9+265
Total persons4,638100.05,069100.07,685100.0+3,047

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2019.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Forecast age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 455 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2041: 1,232 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2041: 850 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2041: 822 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2041: 1,305 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2041: 817 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2041: 548 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2041: 562 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2041: 668 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 427 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 288 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026: 912 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026: 652 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026: 616 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026: 797 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026: 468 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026: 354 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026: 361 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026: 374 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 246 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 190 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016: 683 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016: 605 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016: 601 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016: 791 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016: 395 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016: 373 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016: 405 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016: 387 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 208
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 167 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026 to 2041: 320 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026 to 2041: 197 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026 to 2041: 206 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026 to 2041: 508 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026 to 2041: 349 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026 to 2041: 194 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026 to 2041: 202 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026 to 2041: 294 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 180 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 98 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016 to 2026: 229 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016 to 2026: 48 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016 to 2026: 15 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016 to 2026: 6 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016 to 2026: 73 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016 to 2026: -19 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016 to 2026: -45 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016 to 2026: -13 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 39
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.

Key findings

In Warragul (South) between 2016 and 2026, the number of persons aged under 17 is forecast to decrease by 19 (1.9%), and will comprise 19.4% of the total population.

The number of persons aged over 60 is expected to increase by 374 (25.3%) and comprise 36.6% of the total population.

The largest service age group in 2026 is 'Seniors (70 to 84)', with a total of 912 persons.

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