Baw Baw ShirePopulation forecast
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Trafalgar South - Yarragon South and District

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure category with the greatest increase in persons in Trafalgar South - Yarragon South and District is 'Seniors (70 to 84)'.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Baw Baw Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Trafalgar South - Yarragon South and District - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)2295.82315.82455.8+16
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)3338.43679.23919.3+58
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)3057.73107.73297.8+23
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)2917.42666.62896.9-1
Young workforce (25 to 34)3478.83458.63638.6+16
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)73318.673218.377418.4+41
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)66216.857014.259414.1-68
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)62715.961615.458013.8-47
Seniors (70 to 84)3518.950512.654312.9+192
Elderly aged (85 and over)671.7651.6982.3+31
Total persons3,945100.04,008100.04,206100.0+261

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2019.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Forecast age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 98 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2041: 543 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2041: 580 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2041: 594 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2041: 774 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2041: 363 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2041: 289 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2041: 329 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2041: 391 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 245 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 65 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026: 505 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026: 616 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026: 570 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026: 732 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026: 345 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026: 266 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026: 310 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026: 367 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 231 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 67 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016: 351 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016: 627 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016: 662 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016: 733 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016: 347 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016: 291 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016: 305 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016: 333 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 229
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 33 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026 to 2041: 38 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026 to 2041: -36 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026 to 2041: 24 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026 to 2041: 42 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026 to 2041: 18 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026 to 2041: 23 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026 to 2041: 19 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026 to 2041: 24 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 14 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: -2 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016 to 2026: 154 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016 to 2026: -11 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016 to 2026: -92 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016 to 2026: -1 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016 to 2026: -3 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016 to 2026: -24 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016 to 2026: 4 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016 to 2026: 34 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 2
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.

Key findings

In Trafalgar South - Yarragon South and District between 2016 and 2026, the number of persons aged under 17 is forecast to increase by 41 (4.7%), and will comprise 22.7% of the total population.

The number of persons aged over 60 is expected to increase by 141 (13.5%) and comprise 29.6% of the total population.

The largest service age group in 2026 is 'Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)', with a total of 732 persons.

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