Baw Baw ShirePopulation forecast
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Longwarry - Longwarry North

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure category with the greatest increase in persons in Longwarry - Longwarry North is 'Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)'.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Baw Baw Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Longwarry - Longwarry North - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)1917.52377.12956.8+104
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)28411.236210.845210.4+168
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)1746.82567.73337.6+159
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)2178.52647.93307.6+113
Young workforce (25 to 34)37014.545813.756312.9+193
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)45317.862218.681618.7+363
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)35413.936410.949811.4+144
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)27110.638111.445210.4+181
Seniors (70 to 84)2058.136210.853412.3+329
Elderly aged (85 and over)261.0361.1801.8+54
Total persons2,545100.03,343100.04,354100.0+1,809

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2019.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Forecast age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 80 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2041: 534 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2041: 452 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2041: 498 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2041: 816 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2041: 563 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2041: 330 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2041: 333 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2041: 452 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 295 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 36 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026: 362 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026: 381 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026: 364 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026: 622 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026: 458 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026: 264 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026: 256 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026: 362 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 237 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 26 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016: 205 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016: 271 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016: 354 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016: 453 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016: 370 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016: 217 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016: 174 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016: 284 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 191
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 44 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026 to 2041: 172 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026 to 2041: 71 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026 to 2041: 135 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026 to 2041: 194 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026 to 2041: 104 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026 to 2041: 67 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026 to 2041: 77 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026 to 2041: 91 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 57 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 10 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016 to 2026: 157 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016 to 2026: 110 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016 to 2026: 10 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016 to 2026: 169 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016 to 2026: 88 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016 to 2026: 47 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016 to 2026: 82 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016 to 2026: 78 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 46
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.

Key findings

In Longwarry - Longwarry North between 2016 and 2026, the number of persons aged under 17 is forecast to increase by 206 (31.7%), and will comprise 25.6% of the total population.

The number of persons aged over 60 is expected to increase by 277 (55.2%) and comprise 23.3% of the total population.

The largest service age group in 2026 is 'Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)', with a total of 622 persons.

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